Euro Fundamental Outlook: Will Data Support EURUSD Break？

Euro (EUR) Talking Points:

欧元（EUR）谈话要点：

• EURUSD back above 1.1300 for the first time in nearly three weeks.

  欧元兑美元回到1.1300以上近三周内首次出现。

• Data may prove supportive but worries remain over the strength of the Euro-Zone economy.

  数据可能会有所支持，但对欧元区经济的影响仍然存在担忧。

The DailyFX Q2EUR Forecast is available to download including our short- and medium-term look at the Euro.

可以下载DailyFX Q2EUR预测，包括我们对欧元的短期和中期看法。

Looking for a technical perspective on Euro ？ Check out the Weekly EUR Technical Forecast.

寻找欧元技术观点？查看每周欧元技术预测。

Fundamental Forecast for EUR: Neutral

欧元基本预测：中性

The single-currency is gaining strength going into the weekend, aided in part by weakness in the US dollar, and will wait until data releases mid-week until it confirms whether this trend has further to go. The most important releases of the week are on Thursday with the first look at German and Euro-Zone PMIs. The recent data has been weak with German manufacturing in particular at a 2012 low as factory activity contracts further. A rebound of these levels may add support to the recent tick higher in the Euro although it is unlikely to fuel a further advance. This weeks ECB monetary policy meeting was rather muted affair and offered the market very little in the way of any fresh guidance or opinion.

单一货币正在进入周末，部分受到美元疲软的影响，并将等到周中数据发布，直到确认这一趋势是否会进一步发展。本周最重要的发布是周四首次关注德国和欧元区采购经理人指数。由于工厂活动进一步收缩，德国制造业尤其是2012年的低位，近期数据疲弱。这些水平的反弹可能会增加对近期欧元走高的支撑，尽管不太可能推动进一步上涨。本周欧洲央行货币政策会议相当平静，并且对市场提供的任何新指引或意见都很少。

DailyFX Economic Calendar

DailyFX经济日历

While the currency may be seeing gains, the outlook for the EZ economy remains weak. Recent ‘sources’ reports suggest that the ECB may be willing to offer the upcoming 2-year TLTROs with negative rates, while German 2019 GDP may well be downgraded again to 0.5% from a current level of 1%. Factor in that Italian GDP for this year is now expected to be around 0.2% and the problems for growth in the single-block remain entrenched. In addition, US-EU trade tensions re-emerged this week after US President Trump threatened an additional $11.2 billion of tariffs on EU goods as part of a dispute over EU subsidies to European airline giant Airbus. The EU said that they would look at imposing tariffs on US airline manufacturer Boeing in retaliation. A fresh trade dispute with the US, coming at a time when Brexit is far from settled, may well weigh further on economic growth in the Euro-Zone.

虽然货币可能出现上涨，但EZ经济前景仍然疲弱。最近的“消息来源”报告显示，欧洲央行可能愿意为即将到来的2年期TLTRO提供负利率，而德国2019年GDP可能会从目前的1％水平再次降至0.5％。因此预计今年意大利国内生产总值预计将成为阿罗n％0.2％，单块增长的问题依然存在。此外，本周美国总统特朗普威胁要对欧盟商品征收112亿美元的关税，作为欧盟对欧洲航空巨头空客的补贴纠纷的一部分，美欧贸易紧张局势再次出现。欧盟表示，他们会考虑对美国航空公司波音公司征收关税以作出报复。在英国退欧远未解决之际，与美国发生新的贸易争端可能会进一步影响欧元区的经济增长。

TLTROs – The ECBs Other Stimulus Tool.

TLTROs - 欧洲央行其他刺激工具。

EURSUD has taken all these negatives in its stride this week and pushed back above 1.1300 and a close above this level may well put in a short-term floor for the pair. The week will also be affected by the Easter break which will curb positioning taking and crimp volatility.

EURSUD本周大幅上扬所有这些负面影响并回升至1.1300以上并且收盘高于此水平可能会使该货币对处于短期下方。这一周也将受到复活节假期的影响，这将抑制定位和压缩波动。

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EURUSD Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – April 12, 2019)

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IG Client Sentiment data show 52%% of traders are net-short EURUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests that EURUSD prices may rise further.

IG客户情绪数据显示，52 %%的交易者是净空头欧元兑美元。我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而交易者净空的事实表明欧元兑美元的价格可能进一步上涨。

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

其他每周基本预测：

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Bearish on RBA. AUDUSD Eyes China Q1 GDP

澳大利亚元预测 - 澳元前景看跌澳洲联储。澳元兑美元关注中国第一季度GDP

British Pound Forecast – GBPUSD Rate Defends Bull Trend Ahead of UK CPI Amid Brexit Extension

英镑预测 - 英镑兑美元汇率在英国退欧延长期间英国消费者物价指数保持牛市趋势

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Looks to Earnings, Economic Data to Shape Growth Bets

p>美元预测 - 美元看涨，经济数据形成增长投注