US Dollar Looks to Earnings, Economic Data to Shape Growth Bets

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL

美元FUNDAMENTAL分析：中性

• US Dollar still mired in 2019 range, global growth bets next in focus

  美元依旧沿用2019年范围，全球增长下注焦点

• Q1 earnings reports, economic data deluge to inform slowdown fears

  第一季度收益报告，经济数据泛滥以告知放缓恐惧

• Thin pre-holiday liquidity may translate into kneejerk price volatility

  节前流动性薄弱可能转化为膝盖价格波动

Another week of seesaw price action left the US Dollar mired within the same choppy range that has contained price action since the beginning of the year. The uptrend from early-2018 lows is nominally intact, but the currency has not made meaningful upside progress one way or another since mid-August.

另一周的跷跷板价格行动使得美元陷入了自今年年初以来一直遏制价格走势的同一波动范围内。从2018年初的低点开始的上升趋势名义上完好无损，但自8月中旬以来，该货币并未以某种方式取得有意义的上行进展。

Still, last week‘s developments offered a couple useful tidbits. First, the markets still respond to reminders about cooling global growth. The IMF’s grim outlook update had a sobering effect. Second, price moves on the release of US inflation data and March FOMC minutes showed Fed policy speculation continues.

上周的发展情况仍然如此一对有用的花絮。首先，市场仍在响应有关冷却全球增长的提醒。国际货币基金组织严峻的前景更新产生了严重影响。其次，美国通货膨胀数据和三月FOMC分钟的释放价格波动表明美联储政策猜测继续进行。

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Looking ahead, a focus on the macroeconomic narrative seems likely as trade war and Brexit negotiations recede to churn on in the background. A steady stream of high-profile corporate earnings reports and ample economic news will inform jittery investors eyeing a business cycle downshift.

展望未来，关注宏观经济叙事似乎可能是因为贸易战和英国脱欧谈判在后台徘徊不前。源源不断的高调企业盈利报告和充足的经济新闻将让紧张不安的投资者关注商业周期的降档。

US banks including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America are due to report first-quarter results. Upbeat announcements from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo buoyed market-wide risk appetite on Friday, sapping demand for haven assets and weighing on the anti-risk US unit.

包括高盛，花旗集团和美国银行在内的美国银行即将到期报告第一季度业绩。摩根大通（JPMorgan）和富国银行（Wells Fargo）的乐观声明在周五提振了整个市场的风险偏好，削弱了对避险资产的需求，并打压了反rsk US unit。

This need not necessarily repeat however. The FOMC minutes painted the tone on the rate-setting committee more neutral than markets expected, boosting USD. A steady stream of Fed-speak due next week might reiterate that point, diluting scope for weakness on purely “risk-on” grounds.

然而，这并不一定重复。联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要为利率制定委员会提供了比市场预期更为中立的基调，从而提振了美元。下周将会有稳定的美联储发言可能会重申这一点，在纯粹的“冒险”理由上削弱了弱势的范围。

The data docket is packed. Eurozone PMIs, nd US industrial production are just some of the noteworthy activity indicators set to cross the wires. If the recently disappointing trend in macroeconomic news flow holds, the outcomes may weaken risk appetite on net. That bodes well for the Greenback.

数据存档已经打包。欧元区采购经理人指数和美国工业生产只是一些值得注意的活动指标。如果最近令人失望的宏观经济新闻流动趋势持续，那么结果可能会削弱净风险偏好。这对美元来说是个好兆头。

LIQUIDITY TO SHRINK IN PRE-HOLIDAY TRADE

在假日前交易中收缩的流动性

Finally, the week will be shortened by the Good Friday holiday and overall participation is likely to progressively diminish as Easter weekend draws closer in most of the worlds financial centers. Thin liquidity levels may sap conviction, but they might also amplify any kneejerk volatility.

最后，本周将缩短星期五假期和整体参与可能会逐渐减少，因为复活节周末在世界大多数金融中心拉近了。流动性水平较低可能会削弱信念，但它们也可能放大任何膝盖的波动性。

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Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

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Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Bearish on RBA. AUDUSD Eyes China Q1 GDP

澳大利亚元预测 - 澳大利亚元看跌澳洲联储。澳元兑美元关注中国第一季度GDP

Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Could Crumble if Growth Concerns Catch Fire Again

原油预测 - 如果增长忧虑再次引发火灾，原油可能会崩溃

British Pound Forecast – GBPUSD Rate Defends Bull Trend Ahead of UK CPI Amid Brexit Extension

英镑预测 - 英镑兑美元汇率在英国脱欧延长期间保卫英国CPI前的牛市趋势