Gold Price Outlook: Sell-Off Stalls, Price Remains Around Key Support

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

- Gold prices established a fresh 2019 low this week as sellers pushed through for a test below a key zone of support. But, that selling pressure began to slow as prices pushed below 1275, and ahead of this weeks close, prices pulled back, showing a wick below support for the weekly bar in Gold prices.

- 本周黄金价格创下新的2019年新低，因为卖家在关键支撑区域下方进行了测试。但是，由于价格跌破1275点，卖压开始放缓，在本周收盘前，价格回落，显示金价低于支撑金价周线。

- The 1275.55 level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August-February bullish move, and if buyers are able to hold support here in the open of next week‘s trade, the door can remain open for topside strategies. But hope is not lost for sellers, as shorter-term themes can keep the door open for bearish continuation of this week’s sell-off, focusing in on resistance potential around prices of prior short-term support.

- 1275.55水平是8月 - 2月看涨行情的38.2％斐波纳契回撤位，如果买家能够在下周交易开盘时获得支撑，那么上行策略的大门可以继续开放。但卖家并没有失去希望，因为短期主题可以为本周抛售的利空延续敞开大门，专注于围绕先前短期支撑价格的阻力潜力。

Gold Prices Set Fresh 2019 Low Ahead of Good Friday, Easter Holiday

在复活节假期耶稣受难日之前，2019年新低金价

Many markets are currently closed in observance of Good Friday, and this can be a great opportunity to take a step back to evaluate some bigger pictures. And given Gold price action of recent, thats a market deserving of some attention.

许多市场都是目前因为耶稣受难日而关闭，这可能是一个很好的机会，可以退一步评估一些更大的图片。鉴于最近的黄金价格走势，这是一个值得关注的市场。

Gold prices set a fresh 2019 low this week, testing below a big zone of support thats held up multiple bearish drives already this year. This zone of interest runs inside of two Fibonacci levels at 1275.55 and 1286.38, with a few items of interest in-between. The former of those prices is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August-February bullish move, while the latter is the 61.8% retracement of the 2013-2015 major move.

本周黄金价格创下2019年新低，在多个支撑位下方测试多头今年已经看跌了。这个感兴趣的区域在1275.55和1286.38之间的两个Fibonacci水平内运行，其间有一些感兴趣的项目。这些价格的前者是8月 - 2月看涨行情的38.2％斐波纳契折线，而后者是2013-2015主要的61.8％回撤位移动。

Gold prices worked in this zone shortly after the 2019 open as a bullish trend that began in August started to face turbulence. The first three weeks of January were marked by considerable grind in Gold prices, with buyers shying away from the 1300 level while bulls continued to cauterize support around 1275. But bulls soon won-out in late-January, and prices had extended all the way up to 1346 by mid-February.

在2019年开盘后不久，黄金价格在该区域发挥作用，因为8月开始的看涨趋势开始面临动荡。 1月份的前三周黄金价格相当大，买家回避1300水平，而多头继续在1275附近烧毁支撑。但多头很快在1月底飙升，价格一路走高截至2月中旬至1346年。

Gold Price Eight-Hour Chart

黄金价格八小时图表

Since that high in mid-February, matters havent really been the same. Price action quickly reverted back down to this big support zone, finding a bounce at the 1280.50 level in early-March. That lasted all the way until the 1320 level came into play, at which point sellers took another swing, quickly driving right back down to 1280.50. After yet another bounce, a descending triangle formation had started to build in Gold prices, taken from the descending trend-line to go along with horizontal support around the 1280.50 level. This is a formation that will often be approached in a bearish fashion, so as prices started to break-down earlier this week, it appeared as though that formation had started to fill-in.

自中高以来 - 2月，事情真的不一样了。价格行动迅速回归到这个大支撑区域，在3月初发现1280.50的反弹。这一直持续到1320水平发挥作用，此时卖家再次下跌，迅速再次下行至1280.50。在经历了又一次反弹之后，下行三角形形成了黄金价格，从下行趋势线开始走向1280.50附近的横向支撑位。这是一种通常会以看跌方式接近的形态，因此本周早些时候价格开始出现下跌，似乎形成已开始填补。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

黄金价格四小时图表

This week‘s sell-off in Gold prices saw the establishment of a fresh 2019 low at 1270.70; but bears weren’t able to make much ground below this price, even as the US Dollar started a rather aggressive rally on Thursday, just ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

本周黄金价格的抛售导致2019年新低建立在1270.70;但是，即使美元周四在耶稣受难日假期之前开始相当激进的反弹，空头也无法在这个价格之下做出太大分数。

This begs the question as to whether or not sellers will be able to continue pushing Gold prices-lower, extending this fresh move; or whether there might be something else brewing on a longer-term basis. Taking a step back to the weekly chart highlights a wick from this week‘s sell-off penetrating below the support zone. But the weekly close at 1275.51 also shows how buyers had pushed prices back-up to this key zone before the close of this week’s trade. This is something that can keep the long side of Gold prices as attractive, even given this weeks test below support.

这个乞求关于卖家能否继续推低黄金价格的问题 - 延续这一新举措;还是那个可能还会有其他东西长期酝酿。回到每周图表，突显出本周的抛售导致支撑区域下方突破。但周收盘价1275.51也显示买家如何在本周交易结束前将价格推升至关键区域。即使本周测试低于支撑，这也可以使黄金价格的长边保持吸引力。

Gold Weekly Price Chart

黄金周价格图表

Gold Prices: The Bullish Scenario

黄金价格：看涨情景

The price of 1275.55 is the 38.2% retracement of the August-February bullish move; and if buyers are able to hold support around this level, the door can remain open for re-tests of the 23.6 and 14.4% retracements, showing at 1302.76 and 1319.91, respectively. Each of those are prices that have been used in recent strategy, looking for topside breakouts in March before bears began to dig-deeper into support. The level of 1302.76 is especially interesting for initial targets, as this price becomes confluent with the descending trend-line that makes up the resistance side of the triangle formation.

1275.55的价格是8月 - 2月看涨行情的38.2％回撤位;如果买家能够在这个水平附近获得支撑，门可以继续开放以重新测试23.6和14.4％的回撤，分别显示在1302.76和1319.91。其中每一个都是近期策略中使用的价格，在熊市开始深入挖掘支撑之前，寻找3月份的上行突破。 1302.76的水平对初始目标特别有意义，因为这个价格与构成三角形形成阻力位的下降趋势线汇合。

Gold Prices: The Bearish Scenario

黄金价格：看跌情景

Given this week‘s establishment of a fresh low, combined with the pace of price action over the past month, and this is likely the side that’s going to get the interest of retail traders. But, this is a theme that traders should be very careful with, as the potential for a bear trap remains given the lack of continued selling-pressure once support was tested below.

鉴于本周创下新低，再加上过去一个月的价格走势，这很可能会引起人们的兴趣。零售商。但是，这是一个交易者应该非常谨慎的主题，因为一旦支撑在下面进行测试，由于缺乏持续的抛售压力，熊市的潜力仍然存在。

But – this side was examined on Wednesday of this week as the break-down was beginning to take place. In that piece, I had looked at using prior areas of short-term support as areas-of-focus for resistance. Neither of those levels have come back into play yet, and for traders looking at taking on short-exposure in Gold, this can remain as a workable way of approaching the matter.

但是 - 随着故障的开始，本周三对这一方进行了检查。在那篇文章中，我曾考虑将先前的短期支持领域作为阻力的重点领域。这些级别都没有重新发挥作用，对交易者来说也是如此考虑接受黄金的短期风险，这可以作为处理此事的可行方式。

Such resistance potential exists inside of the longer-term, former support zone. The price of 1280.50 is prior support from the descending triangle, while 1286.38 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 major move.

这种阻力潜力存在于较长期的前支撑区内。 1280.50的价位是下行三角形的先前支撑位，而1286.38是2013-2015重大走势的61.8％斐波纳契回撤位。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley