Top 5 Events: April Bank of Japan Meeting & EURJPY Price Forecast

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The April Bank of Japan meeting is set to conclude on Thursday, April 24, sometime after 1:00 GMT.

- 4月24日星期四，格林尼治标准时间凌晨1点之后，4月24日星期四会议结束。

- Surprise action taken by the BOJ on Friday, April 19 to cut bond purchases suggests that the BOJ will stand pat at its April meeting.

- 日本央行于4月19日星期五采取措施减少债券购买意外，表明日本央行将在4月会议上采取行动。

- Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that EURJPY may soon reverse lower.

- 最近零售交易商定位的变化表明欧元兑日元可能很快反转走低。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部夏令时间7:30 /格林尼治标准时间11:30参加FX周前网络研讨会，其中我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/25 THURSDAY | ~01:00 GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision

04/25周四| ~01：00 GMT |日本央行日本利率决定

The Bank of Japan remains mired in its three-decade war of attrition with deflationary pressures, and 2019 has yet to prove successful in getting topline inflation readings back towards the BOJ‘s medium-term target of +2%.The March National Japanese CPI report came in at a paltry0.5%, the core inflation reading (ex-fresh food) came in at 0.8%, and the core-core inflation reading (ex-fresh food and ex-energy) came in at 0.4% (y/y). It’s fairly predictable that the BOJ will remain one of the worlds most dovish central banks for the foreseeable future.

日本央行仍然陷入三十年的通货紧缩压力之中，而通货紧缩的压力已经成熟，2019年尚未证明成功获得一线通胀数据朝向日本央行的中期目标+ 2％。3月全国日本CPI报告微不足道0.5％，核心通胀数据（前新鲜食品）为0.8％，核心核心通货膨胀率（前新鲜食品和前能源）为0.4％（同比）。可以预见的是，在可预见的未来，日本央行仍将是世界上最温和的中央银行之一。

Ahead of the April BOJ meeting, policymakers opted to surprise market participants on Friday, April 19 with a cut to their bond purchase program from ¥180 billion per month to ¥160 billion per month. With policy so predictable – the whole world knows about Japans multi-decade battle with deflation – the only way the BOJ can effectively implement its monetary policy is via surprise. The surprise action to cut bond purchases reinforces the idea that the BOJ will stand pat at its April meeting.

在4月份的日本央行会议之前，政策制定者周五选择让市场参与者感到惊讶， 4月19日，他们的债券购买计划从每月1800亿日元减少到每月1600亿日元。由于政策如此可预测 - 全世界都知道日本与通货紧缩的数十年斗争 - 日本央行能够有效实施其货币政策的唯一途径是出人意料。削减债券购买的意外行动进一步强化了日本央行将在4月会议上采取行动的想法。

Pairs to Watch: AUDJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY

需要关注的对象：澳元兑日元，欧元兑日元，美元兑日元

EURJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

EURJPY技术预测：每日价格走势图（2018年1月至2019年4月）（图1）

The attempt by EURJPY prices for a topside breakout is on the precipice of failure. Despite having cleared out the downtrend from the September 2018 and March 2019 swing highs through the second week of April, EURJPY has fallen back to its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope now. Slow Stochastics have turned lower and are no longer in overbought territory; daily MACD has started to narrow and point lower. The next few days will prove critical; a move back below the daily 21-EMA (currently 125.66) would represent a move back below the downtrend from the September 2018 and March 2019 swing highs and warrant a bearish forecast for EURJPY prices.

欧元兑日元价格上行突破的尝试正处于失败的悬崖上。尽管已经清除了2018年9月和2019年3月摆动高点的下行趋势截至4月的第二周，欧元兑日元现已回落至每日的8,13和21-EMA空间。慢速随机指标已经走低并且不再处于超买区域;日线MACD开始收窄并指向更低位。未来几天将证明是至关重要的;回落至每日21-EMA（目前为125.66）之下，将回落至2018年9月和2019年3月摆动高点下方的下行趋势，并保证对欧元兑日元价格的看跌预测。

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURJPY (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：EURJPY（2019年4月19日）（图2）

EURJPY: Retail trader data shows 38.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.63 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 08 when EURJPY traded near 125.473; price has moved 0.3% higher since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Apr 11 when EURJPY traded near 125.662. The number of traders net-long is 11.2% higher than yesterday and 15.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 31.9% lower than yesterday and 8.8% lower from last week.

EURJPY：零售交易者数据笑38.0％的交易者是净多头，交易者做空者的比率为1.63比1.事实上，自08年4月EURJPY交易于125.473附近以来，交易者仍然保持净空头;此后价格已上涨0.3％。交易商净多头的百分比现在是自4月11日欧元兑日元交易于125.662附近以来的最高点。交易商净多头比昨天增加11.2％，比上周增加15.1％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少31.9％，比上周减少8.8％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURJPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURJPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而交易商净空头表明欧元兑日元价格可能继续上涨。然而，交易商的净空头比昨天减少，与上周相比。最近的情绪变化警告称，尽管交易者仍处于净空头，但目前的欧元兑日元价格趋势可能很快反转走低。

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外汇交易资源

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写