EUR Forecast: Traders Eye Eurozone GDP, Jobs, CPI Data Upcoming

EURO PRICE FORECAST – TALKING POINTS:

EURO PRICE FORECAST - 谈话要点：

• The EXY Euro Index shows the currency slipped 1.6 percent so far this year and now trades at its lowest level since June 2017

  EXY欧元指数显示货币下滑1.6今年到目前为止的百分比，目前处于2017年6月以来的最低水平

• The ECBs dovish position in response to faltering economic data has put downward pressure on the Euro

  欧洲央行在回应疲软的经济数据方面的温和立场给欧元

• EUR traders now look to upcoming Eurozone GDP and CPI data in addition to German retail sales for potential signs that provide hope for a rebound higher or confirm recent bearish price action

  欧元区交易商现在关注德国零售销售以及即将到来的欧元区GDP和CPI数据，以寻找反弹走高的希望或确认近期看跌的价格行动

• Download the free DailyFX Q2 EUR Forecast for our comprehensive outlook on the Euro over the second quarter

  下载第二季度欧元全面展望的免费DailyFX Q2 EUR预测

Earlier this month, we highlighted thatthe European Central Bank and Mario Draghi could reignite the currencys downtrend. Since the prior weekly Euro forecast the EXY Euro Index has dropped roughly 0.9 percent amid weakness particularly against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

本月早些时候，我们强调欧洲中央银行和马里奥德拉吉可以重新点燃货币下行趋势。自上周欧元预测以来，由于美元和日元疲软，EXY欧元指数下跌约0.9％。

EXY EURO INDEX PRICE CHART: 1-HOUR TIME FRAME (APRIL 08, 2019 TO APRIL 26, 2019)

EXY EURO INDEX PRICE CHART：1小时时间框架（2019年4月8日至2019年4月26日）

In response to sustained Eurozone weakness conveyed in the blocs dismal economic data, the ECB has grown increasingly dovish as the central bank aims to shore up market confidence and improve eroding EUR fundamentals. Consequently, the Euro is now down 1.6 percent year-to-date.

为应对欧元区经济数据令人沮丧的欧元区持续疲软，欧洲央行变得越来越温和央行旨在提振市场信心并改善欧元基本面受挫情绪。因此，欧元今年迄今下跌1.6％。

Next week, however, Eurozone GDP and Inflation data will be released which could provide EUR traders with a reason to celebrate if the high-impact economic readings are reported better than expected.

然而，下周将公布欧元区GDP和通胀数据，这可能为欧元交易者提供理由。如果报告的高影响经济数据好于预期，那就值得庆祝。

Although, economic data has generally fallen below consensus as of late – like the ZEW Survey of Expectations, Eurozone Consumer Confidence and PMI numbers to name a few.

虽然经济数据最近一般低于市场预期 - 如ZEW期望调查，欧元区消费者信心指数和PMI数字仅举几例。

Moreover, Eurozone Q4 GDP data was reported 0.1 percent below forecast. That being said, another miss on economic growth will likely cause additional downside in the Euro.

此外，欧元区第四季度GDP数据报告低于预期0.1％。那就是ng表示，经济增长的另一个失误可能会导致欧元出现额外下跌。

EUROZONE GDP GROWTH CHART: YEAR-OVER-YEAR QUARTERLY TIME FRAME (JANUARY 2016 THROUGH MARCH 2019)

欧元区国内生产总值增长图表：年度 - 季度时间框架（2016年1月至2019年3月）

EURUSD will be worth watching considering US GDP released last week smashed expectations by a full percentage point – further divergence in economic performance between the US and Eurozone has potential of extending recent downside in spot prices.

欧元兑美元将值得关注，考虑到上周公布的美国国内生产总值将预期下调整整一个百分点 - 美国与欧元区经济表现的进一步分歧具有潜力延续近期现货价格的下跌。

Although, the Federal Reserves FOMC meeting on Wednesday could weigh heavily on the currency pair. Also, the possibility of a flare up in trade relations between the US and EU remains a risk that could threaten bullish Euro prospects.

尽管周三联邦储备委员会FOMC会议可能会严重影响该货币对。此外，美国和欧盟之间贸易关系爆发的可能性仍有可能威胁到看涨的欧元前景。

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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – EURO

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Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.

访问DailyFX经济日历，获取影响全球市场的即将发生的经济事件和数据发布的完整列表。

Also, EURJPY should be kept on every trader‘s radar considering next week’s potentially market-moving data happens to be scheduled for release during Japan‘s Golden Week where the country’s financial markets will be closed all week in observation of its 10-day stretch of holidays.

另外，EURJPY应该考虑到下周的潜在市场变动数据恰好计划在日本黄金周期间发布，该国的金融市场将在一周内关闭，以观察其为期10天的假期。 / p>

The lack of Japanese liquidity heightens the risk of possible flash crashes which could become even more likely if Eurozone GDP drastically disappoints.

日本流动性的缺乏加剧了可能发生闪电事故的风险，如果欧元区国内生产总值大幅下降，这种情况可能会更加可能发生。

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OTHER FORECASTS

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GBP - British Pound Price Outlook Choppy as Brexit Talks Share Spotlight with BOE Meeting

英镑 - 因英国退欧谈判与英国脱欧谈判共享聚焦，英镑价格前景黯淡

USD - US Dollar May Rise Further as a Cautious Fed Spooks Markets

美元 - 由于美联储谨慎对待市场，美元可能进一步上涨

GOLD - A Week Packed Full of Major Risk Events and Data

黄金 - 一周充满重大风险事件和数据

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

p> - 由DailyFX初级分析师Rich Dvorak撰写