Crude Oil Price Caught at Resistance Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting

Crude Oil Price Talking Points:

原油价格谈话要点：

• The two-week rally in crude oil has run into resistance at a confluent level on the chart, and sellers have held the buyers at bay around the 60-handle for the past three trading days.

  原油连续两周涨势已经开始在图表的汇合水平上出现阻力，卖家在过去三个交易日内将买家置于60手柄附近。

• Next week brings an OPEC meeting to go along with the Q3 open; can sellers re-grab control？

  下周将举行欧佩克会议以配合第三季度开放;卖家可以重新控制吗？

Crude Oil Price Caught at Resistance Ahead of OPEC

原油价格遇阻欧佩克之前

The final trading day of Q2 is winding down and along with Mondays Q3 open will be a key OPEC meeting set to conclude early next week. As discussed by our own Justin McQueen, it looks as though production cuts are set to be extended. And this, combined with the heightened risk in the geopolitical backdrop after the US drone was shot down by Iran has helped crude oil prices to firm after what had become a strong gust of selling took prices down to fresh five-month-lows.

第二季度的最后交易日正在逐渐减少，随着周一的第三季度开放将是欧佩克将于下周初完成的关键会议。正如我们自己的Justin McQueen所讨论的那样，看起来生产削减可能会延长。在美国无人机被伊朗击落之后，再加上地缘政治背景下的风险加剧，原油价格在强劲的卖盘后价格下跌，使价格跌至新的五个月低点。

Oil Price Chart – Weekly

油价图表 - 每周

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

{12} 图表由James Stanley编写 {12}

As looked at on Wednesday, a strong area of resistance has come into play around the $60 handle. This area is confluent as there are a few different Fibonacci levels in this region to go along with a trend-line projection as taken from the April and May swing-highs. Despite this seemingly bullish backdrop for Oil prices, in which both supply constraint and geopolitical tensions are in the headlines, this key zone of resistance has continued to hold the highs throughout this week.

正如周三所看到的那样，在60美元左右的手柄上出现了一个强大的阻力位。该区域是汇合的，因为该区域有一些不同的斐波纳契水平，以及从4月和5月的涨停高点开始的趋势线预测。尽管石油价格看似看涨，但供给限制和地缘政治紧张局势都成为头条新闻，这一关键的阻力区本周继续保持高点。

Oil Price Chart – Daily

油价图表 - 每日

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Crude Oil Price Strategy Moving Forward

原油价格策略向前推进

Given the continued hold at resistance, the short-side of crude oil can remain as attractive, looking for a hold of this resistance and a revisit down to a prior support zone; such as the area around 57.50 or perhaps around the 55-level. If sellers can take that zone out in quick-order, focus could then shift towards the 51.50 area of prior support that was looked at for target potential earlier this month.

鉴于持续阻力，原油的短边可能仍然具有吸引力，寻找阻力位并重新回到先前的支撑区域;例如57.50左右的区域或者55级左右的区域。如果卖家可以快速排除该区域，那么焦点可能会转移到本月早些时候针对目标潜力的先前支撑位51.50区域。

Crude Oil Price Four-Hour Chart

原油价格四小时图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Crude Oil Price – Bullish Scenarios

原油价格 - 看涨情景

Given the drivers that will be in the headlines combined with the overall dynamics of the risk trade of recent, and traders would likely want to at least entertain the possibility of a bullish outcome around next weeks OPEC meeting.

鉴于将成为头条新闻的驱动因素以及近期风险交易的整体动态，交易者可能希望至少接受看涨结果的可能性在接下来的几个星期欧佩克会议上。

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Just above current price action is another confluent zone of interest, and this exists around the 62.80 level on the chart. The price of 62.89 is the 14.4% retracement of the December-April bullish move, while 62.84 is the 61.8% retracement of the long-term major move spanning from the 1999 low up to the 2008 high. Traders can look for a re-test of this level to signal a bullish flip in the near-term trend, and that can re-open the door for higher-low support potential around the current zone of resistance.

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Oil Price Chart – Daily

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表