Gold Price Weekly Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Losing Steam into July Trade

• Gold price rally testing resistance at late-2013 swing high- constructive above 1350

  2013年底黄金价格反弹测试阻力位高于1350点高位建筑

Gold prices are up more nearly 1% this week with the XAU/USD trading at 1412 heading into the close of the week / month / quarter. While the breakout of the yearly opening-range in spot gold does keep the broader focus higher, price is now trading just below lateral resistance at multi-year highs and could cap the advance near-term. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold (XAU/USD) weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold price setup and more.

本周黄金价格上涨近1％XAU /美元在1412点交易，进入周/月/季度收盘。虽然现货黄金年度开盘价的突破确实使得更广泛的关注度更高，但现在价格在多年高点附近的横向阻力位下方并且可能限制近期的上涨。这些是黄金（XAU / USD）每周价格图表中的更新目标和失效水平。查看我最新的每周策略网络研讨会，深入了解这个黄金价格设置等。

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黄金交易新手入门？开始使用此免费黄金交易方式 - 开始

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

黄金价格走势图 - XAU / USD每周

Notes: In my last Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that the immediate focus is on a weekly close above critical resistance at 1392 targeting, “subsequent topside objectives at 1433 and the 100% extension of the late-2015 advance at 1451- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.” XAU/USD took out the 1433 target early in the week to briefly register a high at 1439 before turning over.

注意：在我的上一个金币中价格周报我们注意到，当前关注点是每周收盘价高于1392点的关键阻力位，“随后的1433上行目标以及2015年末推进至1001的100％扩大 - 寻找IF达到的更大反应。 ”XAU / USD在本周早些时候取出了1433的目标，在交易前暂时将高点记录在1439点。

Note that a Gold prices are on pace to mark the sixth consecutive weekly advance – the last three instances were July 2016, July 2014 and March 2014 – all major reversals / highs in price. Not a reason to get short, but certainly highlights the threat to the advance heading into the close of the month. That said, weekly RSI is now deep into overbought territory and while the border focus remains higher, the immediate advance may be vulnerable heading into the start of July (Q3) trade. Initial support now back at 1380 backed by the 2016 high-day close at 1366 – Broader bullish invalidation now raised to 1350. Topside objectives are unchanged at 1433 & 1451in event of a breach.

注意黄金价格正在连续第六周上涨 - 最后三个例子是7月20日2014年7月16日和2014年3月 - 所有主要逆转/价格高位。不是短缺的理由，但肯定突显了进入本月收尾的预付款的威胁。也就是说，每周RSI现在已进入超买区域和边境焦点仍然较高，直接进展可能在7月初（Q3）交易中变得脆弱。最初支撑位于1380，受2016年高点收盘价1366支撑 - 更广泛的看涨失效现在升至1350.如果违约，上行目标在1433和1451不变。

Bottom line: While the broader gold price outlook remains constructive on the back of this recent breakout, the immediate advance is at risk heading into the July open- be on the lookout for topside exhaustion. From a trading standpoint, a good spot / time to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Ultimately, well favor fading weakness while above 1350 into the start of the quarter.Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

底线：虽然更广泛的黄金价格前景依然具有建设性。最近的突破，即将到来的风险即将进入7月份的开放状态，以寻找上行疲惫。从交易的角度来看，减少长期暴露/提高保护性止损的良好时间点/时间。最终，在季度开始时高于1350的情况下，有利于消退疲软。回顾我的最新黄金价格展望，仔细研究近期XAU / USD技术交易水平。

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

即使是经验最丰富的交易者也时不时需要提醒 - 在交易中避免这些错误

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart

黄金交易员情绪 - XAU / USD价格走势图

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +1.73 (63.3% of traders are long) – bearish reading

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• Long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 25.6% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加3.7％，比上周增加25.6％

• Short positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 0.5% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少7.3％，比上周增加0.5％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold (XAU/USD)-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆势观点反对人群情绪，而且交易商净多头表明现货黄金价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前定位和近期变化的结合使我们获得了更强的现货黄金（XAU / USD） - 从情绪的角度来看，反向交易偏向。