GBPUSD Drops as UK Construction Sector Collapses, Fear of Q2 Contraction

GBP Talking Points:

英镑谈话要点：

• UK construction posts its steepest decline since 2009 as heightened political and economic risks cause a decline in business activity

  英国建筑业自2009年以来出现了最大幅度的下降经济风险导致商业活动减少

• Services PMI released on Wednesday will give greater insight into the health of the economy and its growth prospects (accounts for 75% of economy)

  周三公布的服务业PMI将更深入地了解经济健康状况及其增长前景（ 75％的经济）

• Economists fear that the UK could have experienced a contraction in the second quarter of 2019 as BoE slashed growth rates last week

  经济学家们担心英国可能会在2019年第二季度出现收缩，因为英国央行上周削减了增长率

GBPUSD hovered close to 2-week lows at 1.2620 ahead of the release of UK construction PMI which showed that construction output in the UK has fallen at its steepest rate since 2009. The latest release on industry data follows yesterday‘s disappointing UK manufacturing PMI which fell to 48, it’s lowest level since February 2013, reflecting factories unwinding their stockpiling for the original Brexit departure date. UK manufacturing PMI in June came in at 43.1 (Exp. 49.3) down from 48.6 in May as client confidence is dampened by heightened economic and political uncertainty.

在英国建筑业采购经理人指数公布之前，英镑兑美元徘徊在接近2周的低点1.2620附近。英国自2009年以来一直下跌幅度最大。行业数据的最新公布是在昨天令人失望的英国制造业采购经理人指数下跌至48，这是自2013年2月以来的最低水平，反映出工厂为最初的英国退欧离职日期解散库存。 6月英国制造业采购经理人指数从5月份的48.6降至43.1（实际值49.3），因客户信心因经济和政治不确定性增加而受到抑制。

GBP was trading lower against major pairs throughout the morning session as investors braced themselves for another round of negative data, but the steep decline in the figure did not spark much reaction from the market as construction is not considered a pivotal point in the British economy. Nonetheless investors remain worried about the future of the economy and close attention will be paid to tomorrow‘s services PMI with expectations that the industry can remain above the contraction line of 50 (Exp. 51.0) as last month’s release showed that job creation in the industry was at its strongest in six months. A key point will be to understand whether the increase in hiring is related to a push back in investment on the back of Brexit uncertainty or to a long-term business expansion, a critical difference for gauging the health of the economy and its future growth prospects.

英镑兑主要货币走低由于投资者为另一轮负面数据做好准备，因此整个上午交易日都有所反对，但由于建筑业不被认为是英国经济的关键点，因此该数据的急剧下降并未引起市场的反响。尽管如此，投资者仍对经济的未来感到担忧，并将密切关注明天的服务业采购经理人指数，并期望该行业能够保持在收缩线50（实际值51.0）之上，因为上个月的发布表明创造了就业机会。该行业在六个月内表现最为强劲。一个关键点是要了解招聘的增加是否与英国脱欧不确定性或长期业务扩张背后的投资回调有关，这是衡量经济健康状况及其未来增长前景的关键差异

PRICE CHART: GBPUSD MINOR REACTION TO CONTRUSCTION PMI (ONE-MINUTE CHART)

Data released by the BoE on Monday revealed that British consumers are borrowing at a slower pace, showing its slowest rise in lending in 5 years in May, whilst mortgages are also under strain. The weakening data comes a month after the BoE slashed its growth forecasts for the second quarter saying it now expects growth to have been stagnant at 0%, whilst some economists believe the British economy could have suffered a contraction in the three months to July.

英国央行周一公布的数据显示，英国消费者的借贷速度较慢5月份5年来贷款增长放缓，同时抵押贷款也处于紧张状态。英国央行削减其第二季度的增长预测称该公司预计增长将停滞在0％，而一些经济学家认为英国经济可能在截至7月的三个月内出现萎缩。 / p>