Gold & Silver Price Set-Ups Amid Fed Powells Testimony, FOMC Minutes

Gold & Silver Price Analysis and Talking Points:

金银价格分析和谈话要点：

• Gold Prices Continue Pullback, Focus on Powells Testimony

  黄金价格继续回落，关注鲍威尔的证词

• Silver Price Outlook | Bounce Off Psychological Support, Gold/Silver Ratio Easing

  白银价格展望|反弹心理支持，黄金/白银比率宽松

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See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

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Gold Prices Continue Pullback, Focus on Powells Testimony

黄金价格继续回落，关注鲍威尔的证词

Following last weeks firm NFP report, gold prices have been on the back-foot, slipping below $1400 as both the USD and US yields have gained amid a re-pricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations, which has seen 50bps taken off the table. Consequently, gold prices are eyeing key support at the $1380 handle, while the 23.6% Fib resides at $1373. The next move in the near-term is likely to depend on Fed Chair Powells testimony as well as the FOMC minutes. Given that Fed officials have not dampened market expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates at the July meeting, this looks to be a done deal, however, the path going forward is a little less clear. Thus, a signal that there is unlikely to be a series of rate cuts as indicated by money markets, could provide support for the USD and US yields with gold sliding towards support.

继上周公布的非农就业报告之后由于美联储加息预期重新定价，美元和美国收益率已经上涨，因此美元和美国收益率已经下跌至1400美元以下。因此，黄金价格正在关注1380美元的关键支撑位，而23.6％的斐波那契价格位于1373美元。短期内的下一步行动可能取决于美联储主席Powells的证词以及FOMC会议纪要。考虑到美联储官员没有贬低市场对央行将在7月会议上降息的预期，这看起来是一个成功的交易，然而，前进的道路有点不太清楚。因此，货币市场表明不太可能出现一系列降息的信号，可以为美元和美国收益率提供支撑，黄金向支撑位下滑。

Of note, the prepared speech from Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to make mention of monetary policy, however, it is most likely that the Chair will be asked on the outlook of monetary policy in the Q&A session with focus on when the first cut will take place and how much will the Fed lower rates.

请注意，美联储主席鲍威尔准备的讲话不太可能提及货币政策，但是，很可能主席将在问答环节中询问主席的货币政策前景，重点关注首次减息的时间。美联储将降低多少利率。

GOLD Technical Levels

黄金技术水平

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Resistance 1: $1400 (Psychological)

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Resistance 2: $1435-40 (Double-Top)

阻力2：$ 1435-40（双顶）

Support 1: $1380 (July low)

支持1：1380美元（7月低位）

Support 2: $1373 (23.6% Fib)

支持2：1373美元（23.6％斐波拉契）

GOLD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Jun 2018 -Jul 2019)

黄金价格表：每日时间表（2018年6月 - 2019年7月）

What You Need to Know About the Gold Market

您需要了解的黄金市场

Silver Price Outlook | Bounce Off Psychological Support, Gold/Silver Ratio Easing

白银价格展望|反弹心理支持，黄金/白银比率宽松

Last week we highlighted that there was potential room for silver to outperform given that the near 30yr peak in the gold/silver ratio makes the latter more attractive. While gold prices have edged below $1400, silver has managed to bounce off psychological support at $15.00, which in turn has seen the gold/silver ratio pullback back from 93.49 to 92.32. Topside resistance is situated at $15.33 (38.2%), whereby a break above exposes a move towards $15.50.

上周我们强调那里由于黄金/白银比率接近30年的峰值使得后者更具吸引力，白银有可能获得超出市场的空间。虽然黄金价格已经低于1400美元，但白银已经成功反弹至15.00美元的心理支撑位，这反过来又见证了黄金/白银比率回调从93.49回到92.32。上行阻力位于15.33美元（38.2％），突破上方突破15.50美元。

Silver Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (Oct 2018 – Jul 2019)

白银价格走势图：每日时间表（2018年10月 - 2019年7月）