Sterling - GBPUSD Price Capped as UK Data, Tory Leadership Vote Loom

Sterling (GBPUSD) Price, Chart and Analysis

英镑（GBPUSD）价格，图表与分析

• Jobs, wages and inflation data all released in the first of the week.

  工作，工资和通胀数据全部在本周的第一天公布。

• Conservative Party leadership contest enters its final week.

  保守党领导力竞赛进入最后一周。

Brand New Q3 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

全新Q3 2019英镑和美元预测及顶部交易机会

GBPUSD Likely to be Capped Around 1.2630-1.2650

英镑兑美元可能上限位于1.2630-1.2650附近

Last week‘s modest rebound in GBPUSD from asix-month low of 1.2438 is under pressure, despite the run of five higher lows remaining intact. Sterling traders will be looking at this week’s UK wages, jobs and inflation data for an update on the health of the UK economy after warnings earlier this month from BoE governor Mark Carney that global trade tensions could be more persistent and damaging than previously expected. Carney also warned of the widening gulf between market and the Bank of England expectations on interest rates, raising expectations of an interest rate cut later this year.

上周英镑兑美元从asix-month的低点1.2438温和反弹受到压力，尽管五个较高的低点保持完整。本月早些时候英国央行行长马克·卡尼警告全球贸易紧张可能比以前预期的更持久和破坏性，英镑交易者将关注本周的英国工资，就业和通胀数据，以了解英国经济健康状况的最新情况。卡尼还警告市场与英国央行对利率的预期之间的差距正在扩大，这提高了对今年晚些时候降息的预期。

UK Data w/c Monday July 15, 2019.

英国数据w / c 2019年7月15日星期一。

While UK data will be the primary driver of Sterling this week, traders should also factor in any moves in the Conservative Party leadership contest, with voting ending on Sunday, July 21. Recent polls show Boris Johnson holding a commanding lead over Jeremy Hunt. The latest odds from bookmaker Paddy Power have Johnson at a prohibative 1/33 to become the next Conservative leader compared to a generous 14/1 for Hunt. The first candidate to receive more than 50% of the 160,000 Conservative membership votes will be declared the new leader.

英国数据将是作为英镑本周的主要推动者，交易员也应该参与保守党领导力竞赛中的任何举动，投票将于7月21日星期日结束。最近的民意调查显示，鲍里斯·约翰逊领先于杰里米·亨特。博彩公司Paddy Power的最新赔率让约翰逊成为下一个保守党领袖，相比于亨特的慷慨14/1。第一个获得16万保守党会员票数超过50％的候选人将被宣布为新的lea呃。

IG Client Sentiment data paints a mixed picture despite Sterling traders being 82.2% net-long of GBPUSD, a negative contrarian bias. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long than last week, giving us a mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

IG客户情绪数据描绘的情况好坏参半，尽管英镑交易者净英镑兑美元净值为82.2％，这是一个负面的逆势偏见。定位比昨天的净多头少，但比上周净多，给我们带来了英镑兑美元的混合交易偏差。

The daily chart shows the recent run on higher lows under pressure, weakening the short-term outlook for GBPUSD. Any upside movement is likely to be capped by the 50-day moving average, currently around 1.2646, although a gap on the July 2 candle between 1.2602 and 1.2630 may interest bullish GBPUSD traders.

日线图显示近期在压力较高的低点运行，削弱了英镑兑美元的短期前景。任何向上运动都可能受到50日移动平均线的限制，目前在1.2646附近，尽管7月2日蜡烛在1.2602和1.2630之间的差距可能使看涨的英镑兑美元交易者感兴趣。

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – July 15, 2019)

英镑兑美元每日价格走势图（2018年10月 - 2019年7月15日）