EURUSD May Break Key Support if PMI Data Fuels ECB Rate Cut Bets

ECB RATE DECISION, EUROZONE,EURUSD – TALKING POINTS

欧洲央行决定，欧元区，欧元兑美元 - 谈判要点

• Eurozone PMI data may undershoot expectations, fuel ECB rate cut bets

  欧元区PMI数据可能低于预期，燃料欧洲央行降息投注

• EURUSD as a result may puncture lower lip of critical support channel

  因此欧元兑美元可能会冲击关键支撑通道的下唇

• Traders may wait to commit capital before ECB rate decision, outlook

  交易员可能会等待在欧洲央行利率决定前提交资金，前景

EURUSD may fall if Eurozone PMI data misses estimates and fuels rate cut bet expectations ahead of the ECB rate decision this week. Economic data out of the Eurozone has been tending to underperform relative to economists expectations, with inflationary pressure remaining disappointingly tepid. A sour reading may lend credence to the notion that more accommodative policy may be required to boost economic activity.

欧元兑美元可能会下跌，如果欧元区PMI数据未能达到预期，并且在本周欧洲央行利率决定之前推动降息下注预期。欧元区经济数据相对于经济学家的预期趋于表现不佳，通胀压力依然令人失望。一个糟糕的阅读可能会使人们更加相信可能需要采取更宽松的政策来促进经济活动。

The IMF‘s recent publication of the updated economic outlook certainly supports the notion of the need for looser credit conditions. Following the release of the report, overnight index swaps showed a modest increase in ECB rate cut probabilities. However, given the scope and magnitude of the ECB rate decision, volatility may be relatively muted by traders’ hesitancy to enter a position prior to the central bank outcome.

国际货币基金组织最近公布的最新经济前景肯定支持了这一概念。需要更宽松的信贷条件。在报告发布后，隔夜指数掉期显示欧洲央行降息概率略有上升。然而，考虑到欧洲央行利率决定的范围和程度，交易者在央行结果之前进入仓位的犹豫不决可能相对减弱波动率。

CHART OF THE DAY: WILL PMI DATA CAUSE EURUSD CAPITULATION？

当天的情况：PMI数据会导致欧元兑美元的下跌吗？左

At the time of writing, the pair is sitting on the lower edge of the 18-month resistance-turned-support channel. The lack of follow through suggests traders may be hesitant to feel confident in a particular price direction prior to what could be trend-defining catalysts. Traders will likely find themselves waiting for the assurance of a daily close with follow through before entering a short position or increasing exposure.

在撰写本文时，该货币对位于18个月阻力转向支撑通道的下缘。缺乏跟进表明交易者可能会犹豫不决，在可能成为趋势定义的催化剂之前，对特定价格方向感到自信。交易者可能会发现自己等待每日收盘的保证，然后进入空头头寸或增加曝光率。