Fitch, S&P downgrade Argentina debt as default risk grows

By Gabriel Stargardter

作者：Gabriel Stargardter

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Ratings agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's downgraded Argentina's sovereign debt rating on Friday, flagging higher chances of a default in the wake of a shock primary election result that plunged the country into its latest economic crisis.

布宜诺斯艾利斯（路透社） - 评级机构惠誉和标准普尔周五下调阿根廷主权债务评级，标志着违约率下降的可能性更大一场令人震惊的初选结果让国家陷入了最近的经济危机。

Argentine markets were in free-fall for most of the week after Sunday's vote when center-left presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez trounced center-right President Mauricio Macri. The scale of Fernandez's victory suggested he could win the October ballot in the first round, potentially putting an end to free-market economic reforms and an IMF-backed austerity plan.

阿根廷市场在周日投票后的一周大部分时间都处落体状态总统候选人阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯击败了中右翼总统毛里西奥·马克里。费尔南德斯的胜利规模表明他可以在第一轮赢得10月份的投票，可能会结束市场经济改革和IMF支持的紧缩计划。

The downgrades cap a tough week in which the peso lost nearly 20% of its value, forcing the central bank to eat into its reserves with dollar auctions. Fitch downgraded Argentina's sovereign debt rating from 'B' to 'CCC,' while S&P lowered its rating to 'B-' from 'B.'

降级在一个艰难的一周里，比索损失了近20％的价值，迫使央行在美元拍卖中蚕食其储备。惠誉将阿根廷的主权债务评级从“B”下调至“CCC”，而标准普尔将评级从“B”下调至“B-”。

“The downgrade of Argentina's ratings reflects elevated policy uncertainty following the primary elections, a severe tightening of financing conditions, and an expected deterioration in the macroeconomic environment that increase the likelihood of a sovereign default or restructuring of some kind,” Fitch said.

“阿根廷评级下调反映初选后政策不确定性增加，融资条件严重收紧，宏观经济环境预期恶化，增加了主权违约或某种重组的可能性，”惠誉表示。{/ p>

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Fitch said it expected Argentina's economy to contract 2.5% in 2019, down from a previous forecast of 1.7%. Fitch added that it saw government debt rising to around 95% of gross domestic product in 2019.

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S&P saw 2019 growth falling 2.3%, compared with a prior forecast of a 1.6% decline.

标准普尔指数2019年增长率下降2.3％，此前预测为下降1.6％瑞银全球财富管理公司首席投资办公室新兴市场策略师Alejo Czerwonko表示，降级并不会对许多人对阿根廷债务稳固性的看法产生重大影响。

Alejo Czerwonko, emerging markets strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office, said the downgrade was not going to substantially change many people's minds about the solidity of Argentine debt.

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“Argentina was already rated deep into junk territory and this is pushing the rating a bit deeper, but it reveals little new information to investors,” he said.

“阿根廷已被评为垃圾领域，这使得评级更加深入，但它向投资者揭示了很少的新信息，”他说。

While Fitch said it expects growth to be flat in 2020, S&P saw 2020 growth at 0.5%, compared with a prior forecast of 2.2%, highlighting uncertainty over the policies of Fernandez.

虽然惠誉说它是exp随着2020年经济增长持平，标准普尔指数2020年增长率为0.5％，而先前预测为2.2％，凸显了费南德斯政策的不确定性。

Fitch said the chances of Fernandez winning the election had grown, raising doubts about the future of Macri's IMF-backed austerity plan. The fact that Fernandez's running mate is leftist former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, a longtime skeptic of the IMF program, only heightened those doubts, Fitch said.

惠誉表示机会费尔南德斯赢得选举的人数增加，引发了对马克里IMF支持的紧缩计划未来的怀疑。费希南斯的竞选伙伴是左翼前总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔，他长期以来一直怀疑国际货币基金组织的计划，这只会加剧这些疑虑，惠誉说。

“We could lower the ratings over the next 12-18 months if economic and financial stresses continue to mount,” S&P said, adding it saw “a greater than one-in-three chance of a downgrade over the coming year.”

“我们可以降低收视率在经济和金融压力持续增加的情况下，未来12-18个月，”标准普尔表示，并表示“未来一年降级的可能性超过三分之一。”