Will Oil Price Reach US$190/Barrel?

WikiFX News (23 June) -JP Morgan recently predicted that Brent Crude will hit US$190 per barrel by 2025, noting that crude oil is entering a bullish period as dropped production will be hard to resume.

The company observed that the current over-supply on crude market will be completely reversed to supply-shortage in 2022, and with a possible gap of 6.8 million barrels/day, oil price may reach US$190 by 2025. Though the long term projection has little implication for short-term practice, it may still fuel bullish sentiment over crude oil in the current risk-on market.

As for fundamentals and relevant data, several OPEC countries allegedly decided to limit crude exportation earlier this week. Saudi cut its supply to some Asian buyers, while Iraq announced reducing exports by at least 15%. The International Energy Association(IEA) estimates in a report that crude oil demand will drop by 8.1 million barrels/day this year and weak demand wont completely recover until at least 2022.

WikiFX thinks that risk assets‘ trend doesn’t reflect the severe pandemic and gloomy economic outlook, and investors‘ optimistic about oil prices’ trend should also mind the risk of potential reversal.

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