Relationship Between the U.S. Presidential Election and Oil Prices

With COVID-19 still raging the whole world, fatal negatives have thrust global aviation and tourism on the edge of a precipice, but lose strengths in the face of international oil prices which keep climbing against the trend of economics. Oil prices are free of punishment for several reasons, for example, the weak greenback, the bullish U.S. stock markets, the sharp cuts in production of oil-producing nations, and the hype from time to time that vaccine is coming to market.

Although the U.S. and China have delayed the trade talks initially set on August 15, the immediate news that China will massively purchase crude oil from the U.S. may explains, to some degree, why oil prices has not edged down recently. It is reported that China has planned to import at least 20 million barrels of U.S. crude for August and September. The record-high amount boosts the oil markets, pushing WTI towards the highest level of $48.65 since March.

Ive shared my opinion about this U.S. presidential election in an investment speech: Oil prices may be punished once the Democratic Party is again in government. This is because firstly this Party tends to achieve economic development by low oil prices; secondly, high oil prices will benefit Russia's economy but the relation between the Party and Russia had always been poor. One of the historic slumps in oil happened when Democrat Obama announced sanctions against Russia in 2014, with the prices tumbling to $26 from the high level of $107.56.

The Democratic Party will probably rejoin to the Iran nuclear agreement once return to power, greatly easing the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. To this end, I suppose that the triumph of the Democratic candidate Bidden will trigger significant correction in oil prices.