Will the rand go above R17.79 against the USD?| KOL Forex Analysis•Langa Ntuli

From a general technical standpoint, over the long run, USD/ZAR has primarily been in a substantial uptrend for several years now. We can see multiple extended uptrends across bigger time-frames from the daily to the monthly chart. Historically, since South Africa is, for the most part, a developing country, any dominant currency paired against it like the dollar usually tends to have the upper hand. Many exotic currencies exhibit these traits. While there have been dips to the other side, South Africa's economic problems have made its currency gradually weaker. On the 6th of April 2020, the USD/ZAR hit an all-time high price of R19.35, mainly due to the global Covid-19 pandemic and Moody's downgrade ratings around that time.

Since then, South Africa's currency has gotten marginally better by a few rands, though the market hasn't forgotten this price level and may look at passing significant milestones to get to it again potentially. The first of those milestones would be the R17.79 price level. There was a pullback that lasted for a few months after the record high. After that, we started trending higher from the 22nd of July at R16.34 up to R17.79. So, we could treat R17.79 as a potential supply zone while R16.35 as a possible demand zone.

From the fundamental perspective, we can look at the employment figures and the interest rates of each respective currency. The US seems to be winning here compared to South Africa. The US economy added 1763 jobs in July according to their Non-Farm Payrolls release on the 7th of August 2020. On the other hand, South Africa's figures are quite gloomy. For their Q1 report in June, the unemployment percentage reached an unprecedented all-time high of 30.10%, a 1% jump from the previous figure of 29.1%. A slightly better jobs figure for America should give investors and traders more impetus to have a bullish outlook on the greenback against ZAR.

For interest rates, the Fed has firmly remained at 0.25% for a few of their last interest rate decisions. On the 15th of March 2020, the Fed decreased it from 1.75% to 0.25%, which is the first time since the 2008 financial crisis it has been this low. On the other hand, the SARB (South African Reserve Bank) has also done something similar as they've decreased their interest rates since the pandemic gained more worldwide attention. These efforts are partly measures to boost both respective economies during the global pandemic crisis. We can expect both interest rates to remain more or less where they are in the near future since it will take quite a long time for most of the world to recover. So we can't take advantage of any disparities with these rates for now.

So, overall, no real short-term trading opportunities exist for USD/ZAR. We can only look at the R17.79 level and see what the market does should it get there. However, the easiest bias one can have with this pair is bullish for the long term.

【About the author】

Mr. Ntuli is a retail trader and writer in forex. He has been

engaged in the forex markets for many years. He also has knowledge about

many other financial markets, namely stocks, indices, and

cryptocurrencies. For the past year, he has then transitioned to writing

content on various forex-related topics for different clients ranging

from broker reviews, trading strategies, indicators to educational

information about the markets.

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