​Possible DXY Rally and WTI Slump

WikiFX News (31 Aug) - Markets expect a rise in this week's US non-farm payrolls by 1.575 million, which may bode well for the U.S. dollar index and hamper oil prices.

The FED Chair Powell reported the “average inflation targeting” last week, making the view of negative real yields enduring. The FED's move saw the dollar index deepening its loss to the intraday low of 92.20, the 10-year Treasury yield retreating to 0.724% from the two-and-a-half-month high of 0.762%, gold returning above $1,970 after regaining over $50, and WTI oil consolidating below $43.0.

Currently, once the DXY breaches below 92.0 (the low of August 18), it will see very limited space for further downside and may be greeted by a retaliatory rally. While the supply-demand relationship remains relatively balanced, oil prices in dollar terms may be largely punished by the rebound of the dollar.

Moving forward, markets have lowered the expectation on this week's US non-farm payrolls to the 1.575 million increase amid the new breakouts of pandemic in the US. Thus if the prints are better than expected, it may send the dollar index higher and pressure oil prices.

In terms of WTI crude oil, its prices are still consolidating above $41.30. This support level is so important that bearish investors should keep vigilant: once it is broken, oil prices may further decline to $34.50; on the contrary, oil prices may grasp the chance to hit above $45.0 if the firmer footing is established above it.

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WTI Oil Daily Chart