Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Technical Rebound, but Gains Capped by European Demand Concerns

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose more than 2% on Friday as buyers tried to claw back some of the steep losses from the previous session. The rally was likely fueled by technical factors after the markets dropped 7% on Thursday. Gains were likely capped as a new wave of coronavirus infections across Europe dampened hopes that fuel demand would recover soon.

On Friday, May WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.44, up $1.38 or +2.30% and June Brent crude oil finished at $64.35, up $1.32 or +2.05%.

Concerns about Vaccine Rollouts, Lockdowns Capped Oils Gains

Germany, France and other countries announced the resumption of inoculations with the AstraZeneca shot after regulators declared that vaccine safe. But the earlier halt has made it harder to overcome resistance to vaccines.

Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that Europes airlines and travel sector are bracing for a second lost summer, with rebound hopes increasingly challenged by a hobbled COVID-19 vaccine rollout, resurgent infections and new lockdowns.

Airline and travel stocks fell on Friday after Paris and much of northern France shut down for a month, days after Italy introduced stiff business and movement curbs for most of the country including Rome and Milan.

The setbacks hit recovery prospects for the crucial peak season, whose profits typically tide airlines through winter, when most carriers lose money even in good times.

Additionally, Britain announced it would have to slow its COVID-19 vaccine rollout next month because of a supply delay.

Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Market Headwinds

Goldman Sachs said oil market headwinds related to European Union demand and Iran supply would slow market rebalancing in the second quarter, though it expects OPEC and its allies to act to offset that.

Iran has moved record amounts of crude oil to top client China in recent months while Indias state refiners have added Iranian oil to their annual import plans on the assumption that U.S. sanctions on the OPEC supplier will soon ease.

US Drillers Add Most Oil & Gas Rigs in a Week Since January: Baker Hughes

U.S. energy firms added the most oil and natural gas rigs in a week since January even as oil prices this week pulled back from a recent 28-month high.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose nine to 411 in the week to March 19, its highest level since April, energy services from Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday.

That puts the rig count, which has climbed over the past seven months, up 68% since falling to a record low of 244 in August 2020, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1940. The total count, however, is still 361 rigs, or 47%, below this time last year.

U.S. oil rigs rose nine to 318 last week, their highest since May, while gas rigs were unchanged at 92.