Fed must be ready to hike rates for longer than now expected, Logan says

(Reuters) – The U.S. central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday, putting investors on notice that borrowing costs may ultimately need to go higher than is now widely expected.

（路透社）——达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里洛根周二表示，美国央行将需要继续逐步加息以战胜通胀，这让投资者注意到借贷成本最终可能需要高于现在的普遍预期。

“We must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions,” Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery to students at Prairie View A&M University in Texas. “And even after we have enough evidence that we don‘t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it.”

洛根在为学生准备的讲稿中说：“如果有必要采取这种方式来应对经济前景的变化或抵消任何不受欢迎的条件宽松，我们必须做好准备，继续加息的时间比之前预期的更长。”在德克萨斯州的 prairie view a&m 大学。 “即使我们有足够的证据表明我们不需要在未来的某个会议上加息，但如果经济前景或金融状况发生变化需要，我们仍需要保持灵活性并进一步收紧政策。”

The Fed last year lifted interest rates further and faster than any time since the 1980s to fight inflation that, by the central banks preferred measure, has run for two years at about triple its 2% target. Fed policymakers have signaled they expect the benchmark overnight interest rate, now in the 4.50%-4.75% range, to need to go to at least 5.1% before policy will be “sufficiently restrictive” to ease price pressures.

美联储去年加息幅度和速度超过自 1980 年代以来的任何时候，以对抗通货膨胀，根据中央银行的首选措施，通货膨胀率已连续两年达到其 2% 目标的三倍左右。美联储政策制定者已表示，他们预计目前处于 4.50%-4.75% 范围内的基准隔夜利率至少需要升至 5.1%，政策才能“充分限制”以缓解价格压力。

Key to that, Logan said on Tuesday, will be substantial further slowing in wage growth and better “balance” in what is now an “incredibly strong” labor market. The unemployment rate fell in January to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969.

洛根周二表示，关键在于工资增长进一步大幅放缓，以及在目前“异常强劲”的劳动力市场实现更好的“平衡”。 1 月份失业率降至 3.4%，为 1969 年以来的最低水平。

Logan, who is among the 19 policymakers who set interest rates at the Fed, said that though wage gains have moderated somewhat from their peak, she would need to see a lot more data to be convinced the labor market is no longer overheated.

洛根是为美联储设定利率的 19 位决策者之一，她表示，尽管工资涨幅已从高峰期有所放缓，但她需要看到更多数据才能确信劳动力市场不再过热。

Logan also said she will need to see “convincing” signs that inflation is dropping sustainably and in a timely manner toward the 2% target.

洛根还表示，她需要看到“令人信服”的迹象，表明通胀正在持续并及时地下降至 2% 的目标。

While there has been progress on inflation, with a moderation particularly in goods prices and more recently in housing, she said, more is needed, especially for prices of core services excluding housing. Without improvement there, she said, inflation could land at 3%, above the Feds target.

她说，虽然通胀取得了进展，尤其是商品价格和最近的住房价格有所缓和，但还需要采取更多措施，尤其是不包括住房的核心服务价格。如果那里没有改善，她说，通货膨胀率可能会下降到 3%，高于美联储的目标。

“The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said. “That could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of unanchored inflation expectations that would be very costly to stop.”

“我看到的最重要的风险是，如果我们收紧的力度太小，经济将继续过热，我们将无法控制通胀，”洛根说。 “这可能会引发未锚定的通胀预期的自我实现螺旋式上升，而要阻止这种螺旋式上升的代价将非常高昂。”

There are also risks, she said, of going too far and weakening the labor market more than necessary in pursuit of slowing inflation.

她说，也存在为追求通胀放缓而走得太远和过度削弱劳动力市场的风险。

“My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldnt lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates,” she said.

“我自己的观点是，考虑到风险，我们不应该锁定一个峰值利率或一个精确的利率路径，”她说。