Global Economic : Key Highlights

1

Global financial markets reopened following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, with expectations that “Trump trades” would gain more momentum. These bets are based on the potential return of Republicans to the White House, bringing tax cuts, higher tariffs, and deregulation. Since Biden's poor debate performance last month, jeopardizing his reelection, these trades have gradually increased.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased political instability could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Potential impact on market sentiment.

Companies:General Market Indices

2

Google's parent company Alphabet Inc. is in talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz Inc. in a deal potentially worth up to $23 billion, making it the tech giant's largest acquisition to date.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Large acquisition deals could stabilize the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Tech Market: Positive impact on Alphabet and related tech stocks.

Companies:Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

3

Yen traders face challenges despite suspected intervention and lower US Treasury yields. The yen rose less than 2% against the dollar last week. The yen has fallen 11% year-to-date, exacerbating Japan's inflation pressures, increasing expectations for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike on July 31. Japan's June inflation rate is expected to be 2.9%, well above the BOJ's 2% target.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Expectations of a rate hike could strengthen the JPY.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

Japanese Market: Positive impact on financial sector stocks.

Companies:Major Japanese financial institutions

4

Saudi Arabia is facing its toughest economic moment since beginning its transformation plan. Eight years ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the “Vision 2030” plan to transition the country beyond oil. However, delays and cutbacks reveal significant fiscal pressures. Despite six consecutive quarters of budget deficits, Saudi Arabia remains the largest international debt issuer among emerging markets. The decision to cut oil production with OPEC+ in 2023 did not significantly boost export revenues.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Fiscal pressures could weaken the SAR.

FX Pair:USD/SAR, EUR/SAR

Impact on Shares:

Saudi Market: Mixed impact due to economic transition challenges.

Companies:Major Saudi firms

5

Huawei issued another 10 billion yuan in bonds to finance data research. The bonds have a 10-year maturity, with a subscription rate range of 2.4% to 3%. Huawei's domestic direct debt has surpassed its foreign debt for the first time.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased domestic financing could stabilize the CNY.

FX Pair:USD/CNY, EUR/CNY, GBP/CNY

Impact on Shares:

Chinese Market: Positive impact on tech sector stocks.

Companies:Huawei (private)

6

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is appealing the Federal Reserve's latest stress test results, which require Goldman to hold more capital. CEO David Solomon stated that the results do not reflect the efforts made to stabilize the business.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased regulatory scrutiny could weaken the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Financial Market: Negative impact on Goldman Sachs stock.

Companies:Goldman Sachs (GS)

7

The Copa America final between Argentina and Colombia at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens was delayed by over an hour due to crowd issues. Hours before the match, a large number of fans bypassed security gates, causing chaos at the venue.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Event disruptions could lead to minor volatility in USD.

FX Pair:USD/ARS, USD/COP

Impact on Shares:

Global Sports Market: Minimal impact.

Companies:General Market Indices

8

Kuwait Oil Company announced the discovery of “significant commercial quantities” of light oil and associated gas in offshore fields, marking a turning point in its offshore hydrocarbon exploration efforts. The Al-Nukhida field, located east of Failaka Island, is estimated to hold around 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion standard cubic feet of gas, totaling approximately 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Kuwait plans to expedite production plans to start extraction as soon as possible.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased oil supply could stabilize the KWD.

FX Pair:USD/KWD, EUR/KWD

Impact on Shares:

Global Oil Market: Positive impact on oil sector stocks.

Companies:Kuwait Oil Company (private)

9

According to new research by TikTok and analytics firm Kantar, global spending on Korean cultural products is expected to nearly double to $143 billion by 2030. Interest in Korean dramas, pop music, food, and cosmetics has surged on social platforms, fueling the popularity of “K-content.” TikTok has become a hub for K-pop fans and has recently expanded to include more Korean culture and traditions.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased global cultural spending could strengthen the KRW.

FX Pair:USD/KRW, EUR/KRW

Impact on Shares:

Korean Market: Positive impact on cultural sector stocks.

Companies:Major Korean cultural product firms

10

Spain won the 2024 European Championship, defeating England 2-1 in the final, marking their fourth European title. For England, it was another painful loss, continuing their long streak without a major victory.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive sports outcomes could have minor impacts on EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:

European Sports Market: Positive impact on sports-related stocks.

Companies:General Market Indices

11

European Central Bank officials may be preparing for another rate cut, but this will be after the longest summer break. Action at Thursday's meeting is ruled out as policymakers need time to assess ongoing inflation pressures. Traders will closely watch any hints from ECB President Christine Lagarde about the outlook for the September 12 meeting. May industrial production data, expected to be released on Monday, will likely show a second consecutive month of contraction, while June inflation data to be released on Wednesday will also be critical.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Potential rate cuts could weaken the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:

European Market: Potential positive impact due to anticipated monetary easing.

Companies:Major European firms