简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Abstract:Eight years ago, he was a dark horse, defeating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton to become the 45th U.S. President, sending the U.S. dollar soaring and shaking up global financial markets. Four years later, he sought re-election but lost, and left the White House with the words, "The way we left is how we’ll return." In the years since, popular former President Trump has traveled widely, promising to fulfill previous commitments. As the countdown to the 60th U.S. presidential election begins, this man who once made international markets tremble is back in the spotlight.
Eight years ago, he was a dark horse, defeating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton to become the 45th U.S. President, sending the U.S. dollar soaring and shaking up global financial markets. Four years later, he sought re-election but lost, and left the White House with the words, “The way we left is how well return.” In the years since, popular former President Trump has traveled widely, promising to fulfill previous commitments. As the countdown to the 60th U.S. presidential election begins, this man who once made international markets tremble is back in the spotlight.
Tomorrow, November 5, 2024, U.S. election voting officially begins, with results expected on the evening of November 6. This long-standing struggle between Republicans and Democrats is reaching its ultimate showdown, an event that excites and keeps every forex investor on edge.
While many focus on who will be President, one critical detail often overlooked is that alongside the presidential election, 468 Congressional seats (33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) will also be contested. Will the winning party achieve “sweeping victory” and control both houses or will we face a “divided government”? This is the real issue forex traders should keep an eye on.
What makes this moment even more intense is that right after the election, the Fed's November interest rate decision will take place. Will there be a rate cut? If so, by 50 basis points or 25? On the evening of November 7, the Federal Reserve will present a financial feast to the markets. Undoubtedly, the upcoming week presents an epic market opportunity along with nuclear-level investment risks.
This article will focus purely on the elections impact on financial markets, avoiding political predictions and discussions.
The U.S. employs a two-party system, with the presidency decided by election votes. Trump‘s Republican Party leans toward traditional American policies, representing the upper middle class, focusing more on U.S. domestic issues with a policy to strengthen the dollar through tax cuts domestically and higher tariffs internationally. On the other hand, Harris, standing in for “Biden’s replacement,” represents the Democratic Party, which tends to represent the middle and lower classes and aims to influence global affairs with a more diversified approach.
The U.S. dollars role as the global financial market's linchpin—capable of shifting entire markets—is well known. While the Fed is theoretically independent, the president can still impact the dollar through fiscal and trade policies. Therefore, for forex and stock market participants, understanding Trump and Harris's potential approaches to the dollar and fiscal policy could offer insights into the dollar's likely trajectory.
If the U.S. election brings the forex market to an annual high, the Fed‘s interest rate decision could push it further. Scheduled for November 7, the Fed’s latest decision follows two key economic releases: September‘s PCE inflation data and October’s non-farm payrolls report, which are critical indicators for Fed policy.
Most economists expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing rates to 4.5%-4.75%. Although the PCE inflation and jobs data may influence the decision, most analysts believe these numbers wont shift the Fed's path.
Luzzetti from Deutsche Bank noted that most Fed officials favor a cautious rate cut, while Tim Duy from SGH Macro Advisors agrees. Currently, the market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut, with the probability reaching 95.7%.
For forex investors, it's vital to monitor the Fed's rate cut scale, the Feds reaction to the election, and Powell's tone regarding economic and policy expectations to gauge the outlook for the dollar and other assets.
The upcoming U.S. election and Fed decision will create an unprecedented investment bonanza across forex, metals, energy, and stock markets. For regular forex investors, this is a rare wealth-building opportunity requiring thorough preparation in capital, psychology, and techniques.
Which assets should investors focus on? The top choice is forex, especially the EUR/USD, which is the most popular forex pair globally. Other USD pairs like JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, and CAD are also worth watching. Secondly, gold remains an attractive investment due to its volatility. Experienced traders might also consider U.S. and Asian indices, including the S&P 500, DAX, Hang Seng, and A50.
Lastly, investors are reminded to be aware of the huge risks that accompany these opportunities. Market uncertainties are one aspect, but a larger concern is the potential for fraudulent activities by forex platforms.
Historically, during significant events like the U.S. election or the Feds decision, many unregulated platforms use short videos and social channels to exaggerate earnings, luring investors into “pig slaughtering” forex scams. Even some regulated platforms may deceive investors through misleading promotions, excessive trading signals, platform disruptions, intentional margin calls, and other manipulative practices.
If you encounter these fraudulent activities, feel free to use the WikiFX app to expose, report, and seek help in recovering lost funds. Remember, WikiFX helps you stay informed, revealing the dark side of the forex market to keep your funds safe.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, investment, trading, or specific financial operation advice from WikiFX. Investments involve risks, and readers should make their assessments and consult a professional financial advisor when necessary.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential race approaches, investors worldwide are closely watching potential outcomes and their implications for global markets. While a 269-269 Electoral College tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains unlikely, its occurrence would set the stage for an unprecedented period of political uncertainty, triggering a contingent election decided by Congress. Such uncertainty would ripple across forex, stock, and oil markets, where stability and predictability are prized. Here’s a look at how a tie could affect these key financial sectors.
A former finance officer in Malaysia lost RM450,000 in savings after being deceived by an investment scheme advertised on social media.
A 50-year-old Malaysian woman experienced a devastating loss exceeding RM80,000 after falling victim to an online investment scam that preyed on her aspirations for substantial returns. The victim, a former secretary at a private firm, had initially hoped to secure a profitable investment opportunity but instead found herself deceived by a fraudulent scheme.
CMC Markets partners with ASB Bank to offer NZ clients advanced trading technology, access to global markets, and enhanced investment tools on ASB's digital platforms.