US Dollar Outlook Mired by Bets for Fed Rate Cut in July

US Dollar Rate Talking Points

美元汇率谈话要点

Fresh data prints coming out of the US economy may do little to heighten the appeal of the Dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alters the forward guidance for monetary policy.

随着联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）改变货币政策的前瞻性指引，美国经济出现的新数据可能无助于提升美元的吸引力。

Fundamental Forecast for US Dollar: Bearish

美元的基本面预测：利空蓝色

The US Dollar struggles to hold its ground as the Federal Reserve largely abandons the wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and the central bank may continue to change its tune over the coming months as “many FOMC participants now see that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened.”

美元挣扎着坚守美联储在很大程度上放弃了货币政策的观望态度，央行可能会在未来几个月继续改变态度，因为“许多FOMC参与者现在看到更加宽松政策的情况得到了加强。”

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The US Durable Goods Orders report may reinforce speculation for an imminent Fed rate cut as demand for large-ticket items are expected to hold flat in May, and the final revision to the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may offer the USD little relief as the update is anticipated to show a minor upward revision in the growth rate.

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Even though the economy shows little signs of a looming recession, it seems as though FOMC has become less data dependent and more responsive to the shift in US trade policy as the Trump administration relies on tariffs to push its agenda.

尽管经济几乎没有显示出即将到来的经济衰退的迹象，但由于特朗普政府依赖关税来推动其议程，似乎联邦公开市场委员会对数据的依赖程度降低，对美国贸易政策的转变反应更快。

As a result, the FOMC appears to be on track to switch gears over the coming months, and a growing number of Fed officials may show a greater willingness to insulate the economy as the “apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty.”

因此，联邦公开市场委员会似乎有望在未来几个月内改变方向，越来越多的美联储官员可能表现出更大的意愿将经济隔离开来“贸易的明显进展转向更大的不确定性。”

It remains to be seen if the central bank will implement a rate easing cycle as eight Fed officials now project the benchmark interest rate to narrow to 1.75% to 2.00% by the end of 2019, but the current environment is likely to keep the US Dollar under pressure especially as Fed Fund futures now reflects a 100% probability for at least a 25bp rate cut at the next interest rate decision on July 31.

中央ba还有待观察nk将实施一个降息周期，因为八个联邦主席现在预计到2019年底基准利率将缩小至1.75％至2.00％，但目前的环境可能会使美元承受压力，特别是因为联邦基金期货现在至少反映了25个基点的100％概率7月31日下一次利率决定降息。

With that said, fresh rhetoric from Fed officials may continue to sway the near-term outlook for the US Dollar, and a batch of dovish comments from Chairman Jerome Powellmay drag on the greenback as the central bank head is to speak in front of the Council on Foreign Relations next week.

据此，美联储官员的新言论可能会继续影响美元的近期前景，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔梅（Jerome Powellmay）的一些温和言论拖累美元，因为中央银行负责人将于下周在对外关系委员会面前发言。

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

EUR / USD Rate Daily Chart

Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EURUSD is no longer tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break out of the bearish formations from earlier this year.

请记住，由于价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）突破了今年早些时候的看跌形态，欧元兑美元的更广阔前景不再倾向于下行。

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With that said, EURUSD stands at risk for a larger correction as the exchange rate clears the April-high (1.1324) following the failed attempt to test the 1.1000 (78.6% expansion) handle.

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More recently, the lack of momentum to close below the 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) region raises the risk for a run at the monthly-high (1.1348), but need a close above the 1.1340 (38.2% expansion) hurdle to bring the 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) area on the radar.

近期，收盘跌破1.1190（38.2％回撤位）至1.1220（78.6％回撤位）区域的动力不足，增加了月度高点（1.1348）的运行风险，但需要收盘高于1.1340（38.2％扩张）的阻力，将1.1390（61.8％的回撤位）推向1.1400（50％扩张）区域。

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

---由货币策略师David Song撰写