US Dollar May Gain if IMF Report, US GDP Data Fuels Haven Demand

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

美元基本预测：看涨

• US Dollar may gain on risk aversion if US GDP data undershoots forecasts

  如果美国GDP数据低于预期，美元可能会因避险情绪而上涨

• USD spike may be amplified if IMF report shows fragility in global economy

  如果IMF报告显示全球经济脆弱，美元飙升可能会放大

• Will USD strength from higher liquidity demand crush rate cut expectations？

  流动性需求增加导致美元强势压榨降息预期？

The US Dollar will likely experience higher-than-usual volatility in the week ahead as the IMF prepares to publish its updated outlook for the world economy along with the release of critical US economic data. Depending on the nature of the data, if it falls in line with the fundamental trajectory of slower growth and increased risks to the financial system, the US Dollar may experience capital inflow from panicked investors.

随着国际货币基金组织准备发布，未来一周美元可能会出现高于平时的波动它对世界经济的最新展望以及美国关键经济数据的发布。根据数据的性质，如果它与增长放缓和金融体系风险增加的基本轨迹一致，美元可能会从恐慌的投资者那里获得资金流入。

The biggest event risk for the week will likely be the release of US Q2 GDP data. The report is expected to show a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.8 percent which would mark the slowest pace of expansion since Q1 2017. Since February, economic data out of the US has been tending to underperform relative to economists expectations. It would not be surprising to see GDP data fall in line with this trend.

Are Economists Overestimating the Strength of the US Economy？

经济学家是否过高估计了美国经济的实力？

Note: Data shown in red indicates underperformance, blue means better-than-expected

注：数据显示为红色表示表现不佳，蓝色表示好于预期

US Dollar strength may also emerge from the publication of the IMF‘s World Economic Outlook update, the title of which in January was “A Weakening Global Expansion”. Given the trajectory of global growth and tense trade relations in developed and emerging markets, it is likely the updated outlook will carry the same pessimistic undertones outlined in January’s report. Only this time, the gloom and doom may be amplified.

美元强势也可能从国际货币基金组织世界经济展望更新的出版中脱颖而出，该更新于1月份出版“弱化全球扩张”。鉴于发达市场和新兴市场的全球增长轨迹和紧张的贸易关系，最新的展望很可能会带来1月报告中所述的悲观情绪。只有这一次，悲观和厄运可能会被放大。

With market participants already expecting slightly lower-than-even oddsof a 50 bp cut at the FOMC meeting in July, it leaves increasingly less room for additional dovish expectations. If GDP data undershoots and the IMF report spooks investors, the US Dollar may rise as traders shift from chasing yields to preserving capital. As such, the downward pressure of Fed rate cut bets may be overwhelmed by the desire for liquidity in uncertain times.

由于市场参与者已经预计7月FOMC会议减少50个基点的幅度略低于均匀，但是越来越少的额外鸽派期望的空间。如果国内生产总值数据低于预期且国际货币基金组织的报告令投资者感到不安，美元可能会随着交易商从追逐收益率转向保留资本而上涨。因此，美联储降息预期的下行压力可能会被不确定时期的流动性欲望所压倒。

Chart Showing US Dollar Index and Implied Federal Funds Rate for January 2020

图表显示2020年1月的美元指数和隐含的联邦基金利率