US Dollar Price Outlook: DXY Breakout vs Fed Rate-Cut – Trade Levels

• US Dollar approaching yearly highs- breakout at risk into 98.37/42

  美元接近年度高点 - 风险突破为98.37 / 42

The US Dollar Index is up more than 2.4% from the June low with DXY now approaching multi-year inflection slope ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision and US Non-Farm Payroll this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the DXY weekly price chart heading into the close of the month. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this US Dollar trade setup and more.

美元指数从6月份的低点上涨超过2.4％在本周FOMC利率决定和美国非农就业数据公布之前，现在接近多年的拐点。这些是DXY每周价格图表中的更新目标和失效水平，直至月末。查看我的最新周刊策略网络研讨会，深入了解这笔美元交易设置等。

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US Dollar Price Chart – DXY Weekly

美元价格走势图 - 每周DXY

Notes: In my last US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the index was testing a major resistance-confluence at 97.87 where the 61.8% retracement oft eh 2017 decline converges on basic trendline resistance. Price closed just pips above this region last week with the breakout at risk while below this threshold heading into this weeks FOMC interest rate decision.

注意：在我上一次美元每周价格展望中，我们注意到该指数正在测试97.87的主要阻力汇合点，其中2017年下跌的61.8％回撤趋势收敛于基本趋势线阻力位。上周价格收盘时仅突破该区域，突破风险，而低于此阈值则进入本周FOMC利率决策。

Immediate weekly resistance now stands at 98.37/42 – a region defined by the 100% extension at of the June advance and the May high. Note that a parallel of the 2011 trendline line (which has been an inflection slope for more than six years now) rests just higher and ultimately a weekly close above is needed to keep the broader long-bias viable targeting 99.19 and the April 2017 uncovered close at 99.98. Keep an eye on the pending RSI resistance trigger for guidance. Initial support now back at 97.87 with a break below 97.50 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway.

当前每周阻力位于98.37 / 42--这个区域由6月份上涨和5月份高点的100％延伸定义。需要注意的是，2011年趋势线的平行线（现在已经超过六年的拐点）依然较高，最终需要每周收盘才能保持更广泛的长期偏向可行目标99.19和2017年4月揭晓收盘在99.98。密切注意待处理的RSI阻力触发器以获得指导。初步支撑位于97.87，突破97.50需要建议更大的修正正在进行中。

Bottom line: The US Dollar Index needs to clear this critical resistance slope on a weekly close basis to keep the long-bias viable and validate a breakout of the objective yearly opening-range high. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 98.37/42 – expect a bigger reaction there IF reached. Keep in mind were heading into the close of the month with major event risk on tap (BoE, FOMC, NFP) – stay nimble and tread lightly into the August open.

一句话：美元指数需要在每周收盘基础上清除这一关键阻力位，以保持长期偏向可行并验证客观年度开盘价高点的突破。从交易的角度来看，寻求减少长时间暴露/提高保护性止损一段时间朝向98.37 / 42 - 期望IF达到更大的反应。请记住，本月底即将发生重大事件风险（英国央行，联邦公开市场委员会，非洲民主党） - 保持敏捷，并轻轻踏入8月开放。

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Relevant US Data Releases

美国相关数据发布