Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: Loonie Breakout Tests USD/CAD Support

• USD/CAD price sell-off testing initial support objectives – Risk is lower sub-1.3357

  美元/加元价格抛售测试初步支持目标 - 风险低于1.3357

The Canadian Dollar has rallied to multi-month highs against the US Dollar with price now testing a key support pivot near the March swing lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts. Review this weeks Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

加元兑美元汇率反弹至多个月高点美元现在正在测试一个关键支撑位，接近3月份的低点。这些是美元/加元图表上重要的更新目标和失效级别。回顾本周的策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

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Technical Outlook: In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the near-term risk was for a larger setback in USD/CAD with a break lower targeting the, “1.3435/37 support pivot- look for a bigger reaction there if reached.” A break and retest of this level last week as charged a 2.2% drop with price testing confluence support at 1.3258 into the start of the week. A gap lower into the Sunday open has already filled with price trading just above Fibonacci support.

技术展望：在我最新的加拿大元价格展望中，我们注意到短期风险是美元兑加元遭遇更大的挫折，下跌趋势为“1.3435 / 37支撑位 - 看看如果达到更大的反应。”上周突破并重新测试该水平为2.2本周初，价格测试汇率支撑位于1.3258附近。周日开盘时的跌幅已经在斐波那契支撑位上方进行了价格交易。

Resistance stands at 1.3357 with broader bearish invalidation now back at the 1.3435/37 pivot zone. A break lower from here keeps the focus on more significant support at the 61.8% extension / 78.6% retracement at 1.3175/98.

阻力位于1.3357，更广泛的看跌失效现在回到1.3435 / 37枢轴区。从这里开始下跌使得关注点更加显着支撑位于1.3175 / 98的61.8％延伸/ 78.6％回撤位。

USD/CAD 120min Price Chart

美元/加元120分钟价格表

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Loonie trading within the confines of an descending pitchfork formation extending off the May lows with the upper parallel further highlighting the 6657 resistance zone. The pullback is now testing initial support here at 6620 – a break lower would exposes 6596 backed by 6574 – both areas of interest for possible exhaustion. Bullish invalidation rests with the lower parallel / 61.8% retracement at 6552. A topside breach would keep the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at 6684 and the yearly open / 50% retracement at 6705/12 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

注意：仔细观察价格走势显示Loonie在5月低点延伸的干草叉形成范围内交易，上部平行线进一步突显6657阻力区。目前正在6620处测试初步支撑 - 下跌将暴露6596支持6574 - 这两个领域都可能用尽可能的疲惫。看涨无效取决于6552的较低水平/ 61.8％回撤位。上行突破将继续关注随后的阻力目标位于6684，年度开放/ 50％回撤位于6705/12 - 寻找更大的反应IF。

Bottom line: The USD/CAD breakdown has price testing the first major support pivot and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, we could see some price exhaustion here. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Look for price exhaustion into the upper parallels for possible entries with a break of the lows targeting more significant support into the 1.32-handle.

一句话：美元/加元崩盘已经测试了第一个主要支撑位的价格，虽然更广泛的前景仍然偏向下行，但我们可以看到价格疲软。交易立场，减少短期/低价的好地方保护性停止。寻找价格疲惫进入上部平行线以寻找可能的进场，突破低点，将更多重要支撑放入1.32手柄。

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD / CAD Trader Sentiment

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.23 (55.1% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示，交易者持有净多头美元/加元 - 该比率为+1.23（交易者持有多头的55.1％） - 弱势看跌

• The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since February 13th

  交易者净多头的百分比现在是2月13日以来的最高值

• Long positions are 19.6% higher than yesterday and 55.1% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加19.6％，高出55.1％周刊

• Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 45.0% lower from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少2.9％，比上周减少45.0％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易者持有净多头意味着美元/加元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前的定位和最近的变化相结合，使我们从情绪的角度看美元/加元看跌的逆势交易偏向。

Relevant US / Canada Data Releases

美国/加拿大相关数据发布

Active Trade Setups

有效交易设置

• New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: Kiwi Fails Flight into Resistance

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• Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Testing Key Pivot Ahead of ECB

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• Gold Price Outlook: XAU Breakout - Too Far, Too Fast？

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• Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar Breakout Vulnerable into RBA

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

- 由DailyFX货币策略师Michael Boutros撰写