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Abstract:USD/NOK traders will be eyeing the release of Norways industrial production data. Will the recent slump in economic performance prompt the central bank to postpone
USD/NOK TALKING POINTS – NORWEGIAN KRONE, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIO
Norwegian Krone watching industrial production data
Will the Norges Bank raise rates at next policy meeting?
Looking ahead, Krone will be eyeing GDP, CPI report
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USD/NOK will be on its toes leading up to the release of Norways highly anticipated month-on-month industrial production data. The last report showed a 1.0 percent decline with economic performance out of Norway recently slumping as global growth slows down. The OECD recently cut its 2019 world growth outlook to 3.3 percent from 3.5.
As an-export driven economy with a heavy reliance on the petroleum sector, the Norwegian Krone is sensitive to changes in global demand and shifts in crude oil prices. Norway is also a major exporter of natural gas to the EU and is therefore also sensitive to economic changes in the Continent whether it be from reduced demand or political upheaval.
USD/NOK recently extended past the 8.5356-8.6323 resistance range but retreated shortly after the pair exhausted its sugar rush and came down after negative RSI divergence revealed slowing upside momentum. The next possible barrier rests at 8.6910 where the pair pivoted following the sharp incline. The fundamental outlook suggests USD/NOK still has significant room to climb.
USD/NOK – Daily ChartLooking ahead, the upcoming rate decision and commentary by the ECB may move the Nordic currency due to the EU‘s unique relationship with Scandinavian economies. In Norway, CPI data is scheduled to be released next week which may influence the Norges Bank’s upcoming policy meeting on March 21. Their intention is to raise rates once this year, but gloomy presentiments may cause them to pivot and delay the hike.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The Euro may rise vs the Norwegian Krone this week and push EURNOK to retest the 11-year high at 10.0972, a level not reached since the 2008 financial crash.
The US Dollar may rise vs the Norwegian Krone if the Norges Bank scales back its hawkish outlook against the backdrop of slower regional and global growth.
The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone will likely experience unusually high volatility with Swedish GDP, the FOMC rate decision and other high-event risk in the week ahead.
USDNOK fell over one percent after the Norges Bank chose to raise its benchmark interest rate and provided a hawkish outlook for monetary policy.