Gold Price Technical Outlook: GLD Drops Toward Key 2019 Support

Gold Price Talking Points

黄金价格谈判点

- After a bullish move from a key zone of support, Gold prices turned around at resistance following the Wednesday outlay of ECB and FOMC meeting minutes, and Gold price action is now fast approaching the support zone thats held the lows through 2019, at least so far.

- 在关键支撑区看涨后，黄金价格在欧洲央行和FOMC会议周三支出后出现阻力位分钟，黄金价格行动现在正快速逼近支撑区，至少到目前为止一直保持在2019年的低点。

- As Gold price action digests, going along with a number of other macro markets doing the same, the big question is what the next directional move might be, and this appears to be inextricably linked to the US Dollar. If the USD can breakout of its ascending triangle formation thats been brewing since Q4 of last year, bearish strategies in Gold can soon become attractive. But – if USD continues to congest with bulls pulling away from that yearly high, the topside of Gold can remain as attractive, looking for a continuation of the late 2018, early 2019 bullish theme.

- 随着黄金价格行动的消化，伴随着一个数字其他宏观市场做同样的事情，最大的问题是下一个定向举措可能是什么，这似乎与美元密不可分。如果美元可以突破自去年第四季度开始酝酿的上升三角形态，那么黄金的看跌策略很快就会变得具有吸引力。但是 - 如果美元继续受到多头从年度高位回落的影响，黄金的上行仍然具有吸引力，寻找2018年末，2019年初看涨主题的延续。

Gold Price Digestion Continues into Second Month

黄金价格消化持续到第二个月

In the second week of Q2, the patterns of digestion across a number of macro markets continued. While the Wednesday outlay of the ECB and FOMC Meeting Minutes from the March rate decision had the potential to prod breakouts, only more digestion was seen. This may be setting up global markets for a big breakout at some point later this year but, for now, traders are forced to work with what they have; which is a stream of digestion or congestion-based setups across many of the worlds largest markets.

在第二季度的第二周，模式消费在一些宏观市场继续消化。虽然欧洲央行和FOMC会议纪要的周三支出从3月份的利率决定中有可能刺激突破，但只看到更多的消化。这可能会在今年晚些时候的某个时候为全球市场建立一个大突破，但是，目前，交易者被迫与他们拥有的东西合作;这是世界上许多大型市场的消化或拥挤设置流。

In Gold prices, digestion has been showing for a couple of months now. Gold came into 2019 with a full head of steam, continuing a bullish move that started in mid-August of last year when the yellow metal hit a low around 1160. At that point, bulls re-grabbed the reins and Gold prices perched all the way up to the 1340 area by mid-February. Since then, however, digestion has been the name of the game as prices have built into a descending triangle formation, taken from horizontal support at the 1281 area, combined with a series of lower-highs from February, March and then April.

在黄金价格方面，消化已经显示了几个月了。走d进入2019年全力以赴，继续看涨，从去年8月中旬开始，黄金在1160附近触及低点。此时，多头重新抓住了缰绳，黄金价格全部停留在到2月中旬到达1340地区。然而，从那以后，消化一直是游戏的名称，因为价格已经构成了一个下降的三角形形态，取自1281区域的水平支撑，加上2月，3月和4月的一系列低点。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

黄金价格四小时图表

Taking a step back, and focusing in on that area of support, traders may be able to gleam another type of approach. The January swing-low came-in around 1276; and this is just above a key Fibonacci level at 1275.55. The March swing lows approached this price but, bulls stepped-in before hand to produce a higher-low on the chart. A follow-through support test in early-April saw the same March low respected but, in the ensuing bump-higher, another Fibonacci level came into play around 1286, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 major move in Gold prices.

退一步，专注于支撑区域，交易员也许能够激发另一种方法。 1月份的低点出现在1276年左右;这恰好高于1275.55的关键斐波那契水平。 3月份的低点接近这个价格但是，多头先行介入以在图表上产生更高的低点。 4月初的后续支撑测试看到同样的3月低点受到尊重，但在随后的暴涨中，另一个斐波纳契水平在1286附近发挥作用，这是2013 - 2015年黄金主要走势的61.8％斐波那契回撤位价格。{/ p>

The net of which produces a large zone of support that, so far, has helped to hold the 2019 lows in Gold prices.

其净值创造了一个大的支撑区域，到目前为止，已经帮助维持金价的2019年低点。

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Gold Price Eight-Hour Price Chart

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Gold Price Trading Strategy

黄金价格交易策略

Given the above backdrop, and theres a case to be made on either side; although traders would likely want to evaluate the landscape in the effort of seeing which setup fits with their overall market view.

鉴于上述背景，以及两边都要做的案件;虽然交易者可能希望评估景观，以确定哪种设置符合他们的整体市场观点。

For those looking at bullish themes in the US Dollar, carrying the expectation that the brewing ascending triangle will soon face a topside breakout, the short-side of Gold could be attractive, and traders would likely want to focus-in on the shorter-term descending triangle looked at above. A downside break through 1280.50 support could open the door for moves towards 1260 and then 1250.

对于那些看着美元看涨主题的人，抱着期望日酿造上升三角形将很快面临上行突破，黄金的短边可能具有吸引力，交易者可能希望关注上方的短期下行三角形。下行突破1280.50支撑可能为1260和1250的走势敞开大门。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

For traders that are expecting the FX market impasse to hold, at least for now; the longer-term backdrop in Gold becomes more attractive. This approach would likely be looking for a support test, with a hold of the lows above that March swing around the 1280.50 level. If prices do dip below 1280, bullish strategies could still remain as an option; provided that buyers hold price action above the 1275 bottom of that support zone.

For预计外汇市场陷入僵局的交易商至少暂时存在;黄金的长期背景变得更具吸引力。这种方法可能正在寻求支撑位测试，并将低于3月份的低点保持在1280.50附近。如果价格跌破1280，看涨策略仍可作为期权;只要买家在该支撑区域的1275底部以上进行价格操作。

The Market in GLD

GLD中的市场

As discussed in Tuesdays piece, the GLD Exchange Traded Fund is a popular way for US traders and investors to get exposure into Gold prices. But – given the open/closing times of US exchanges, it does create a less fluid backdrop filled with gaps that can make shorter-term technical analysis a bit of a challenge.

如周二所述，GLD交易所交易基金是美国交易者和投资者接触黄金价格的流行方式。但是 - 考虑到美国交易所的开放/关闭时间，它确实创造了一个不那么流畅的背景，填补了空白，可以使短期技术分析成为一个挑战。

But – the zones and levels discussed above have bearing on the GLD chart. The support zone of relevance in Gold prices could be plotted on GLD around the 121.00 level, as there are two longer-term Fibonacci levels straddling that price.

但是 - 上面讨论的区域和水平与GLD图表有关。与黄金价格相关的支撑区域可以在GLD附近绘制在121.00附近，因为有两个长期斐波那契水平跨越该价格。

GLD Four-Hour Price Chart

GLD四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

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您是否正在寻找对美元进行长期分析？我们对Q2的DailyFX预测有一个针对每种主要货币的部分，我们也是为美元对提供大量资源，如欧元/美元，英镑/美元，美元/日元，澳元/美元。交易者还可以通过我们的IG客户情绪指标保持近期定位。