Top 5 Events: March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

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- The preliminary March US Durable Goods Orders report is due on Thursday, April 25 at 12:30 GMT.

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- Q119 US GDP expectations have rebounded considerably after reaching as low as 0.2% in the early-March; the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is up to 2.8%.

- Q119美国国内生产总值预期在3月初达到0.2％之后大幅反弹;亚特兰大联邦储备银行GDPNow估计高达2.8％。

- Retail traders have started to fade US Dollar gains, although the outlook for USDJPY is mixed.

- 尽管美元兑日元前景喜忧参半，但零售交易商已经开始淡化美元涨幅。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

星期一美国东部夏令时间7:30 /格林威治标准时间11点30分加入我的FX周向网络研讨会，在那里我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。 / p>

04/25 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Durable Goods Orders (MAR P)

04/25周四| 12:30 GMT |美元耐用品订单（MAR P）

The US economy revolves around consumption trends, given that approximately 70% of GDP is accounted for by the spending habits of businesses and consumers. As such, the Durable Goods Orders reportmake for an important barometer of the US economy. Durable goods are items with lifespans of three-years or longer – from refrigerators and washing machines to cars and airplanes. These items typically require greater capital investment or financing to secure, meaning that traders can use the report as a proxy for business‘ and consumers’ financial confidence and health. The preliminary March print is expected to show a gain of 0.6% after the 1.6% drop in February.

美国经济围绕消费趋势展开，因为大约70％的GDP来自企业和消费者的消费习惯。因此，“耐用品订单”报告标志着美国经济的重要晴雨表。耐用品是寿命为三年或更长的物品 - 从冰箱和洗衣机到汽车和飞机。这些项目通常需要更多的资本投资或融资以确保安全，这意味着交易者可以使用该报告作为企业和消费者财务信心和健康的代理。在2月份下降1.6％之后，预计3月初步印刷品将增长0.6％。

The Durable Goods Orders reportcould help solidify the rebound in US growth expectations seen since early-March. Based on the information received thus far about Q1‘19, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at 2.8% after hitting a low of 0.2% in the second week of March. The next update to the Q1’19 forecast will be released after Tuesdays US economic data.

耐用品订单报告可以帮助巩固美国的反弹势头自3月初以来的增长预期。根据迄今为止收到的关于1919年第一季度的信息，亚特兰大联储GDPNow预测在3月第二周达到0.2％的低点后，预计增长率为2.8％。周二美国经济数据公布后，对第19季度预测的下一次更新将会公布。

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

值得关注：DXY指数，欧元兑美元，美元兑日元，黄金

USDJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

美元兑日元技术预测：每日P冰图表（一月2018年2019年4月）（图1）

Price action in USDJPY has been constructive since breaking the downtrend from the March swing highs. Likewise, USDJPY prices were able to clear out the March 20 bearish outside engulfing bar high at 111.69, suggesting that pressure is building for a more substantive topside move. A near-term resistance band comes into play between 112.14, the March high, and 112.30, the swing lows from November and December 2018.

美元兑日元价格行动一直以来从三月高点摆动打破跌势建设性。同样，美元兑日元的价格能够清除3月20日看跌的外部吞没高点111.69，表明压力正在建立一个更实质性的上行动作。近期阻力带进场112.14之间，三月高，112.30，从十一月和十二月2018年摆动低点

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDJPY (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：美元兑日元（4月19日，2019）（图2）

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 34.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.92 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 31 when USDJPY traded near 110.83; price has moved 1.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.8% lower than yesterday and 11.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.7% lower than yesterday and 25.8% higher from last week.

USDJPY：零售交易数据表示的交易者34.2％为净多头交易商的比例短到长在1.92事实上，自3月31日美元兑日元交易于110.83附近以来，交易商一直保持净空头;此后价格已上涨1.0％。交易商净多头比昨天减少1.8％，比上周减少11.1％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少6.7％，比上周增加25.8％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易商净空头表明美元兑日元价格可能继续上涨。定位比昨天的净空头少，但比上周更多的净空头。当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对美元兑日元的交易偏差进一步加剧。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写