FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Australia Inflation; BOC Meeting; US GDP and More

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The Q1‘19 Australia inflation report will help keep the RBA on hold for now, but traders shouldn’t dismiss rising odds of a rate cut later this year.

- 澳大利亚Q1'19通胀报告将有助于保持澳联储现在暂停，但交易者不应该忽视上涨的可能性。今年晚些时候降息。

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- The initial Q119 US GDP report is expected to show that concerns over a recession induced by the US government shutdown were overblown.

- 最初的Q119美国国内生产总值报告预计表明对美国政府关闭导致的经济衰退的担忧被夸大了。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一加入我格林尼治标准时间7:30 / 11：30为FX Week Ahead网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/24 WEDNESDAY | 01:30 GMT | AUD CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1Q)

04/24 WEDNESDAY |格林尼治标准时间01:30澳元消费者物价指数（1季度）

Due in at 1.5% from 1.9% (y/y), the Q119Australia inflation report is expected to be another signpost for the RBA that necessitates neutrality in its policy stance in the near-term and perhaps more dovish considerations by the end of the year. Even though labor markets have continued to improve in recent months, a lack of wage growth and rising indebtedness of households (already at all-time highs) makes for a concerning future for consumption trends.

由于1.9％（同比）下降1.5％，Q119澳大利亚通胀报告预计将成为需要中立的澳联储的另一个路标在近期的政策立场，可能在年底前更加温和的考虑。尽管最近几个月劳动力市场持续改善，但工资增长不足和家庭负债增加（已经达到历史最高水平）使消费趋势成为一个令人关注的未来。

Read the full report: Q119 Australia Inflation Report & AUDUSD Price Forecast

阅读完整报告：Q119澳大利亚通货膨胀报告和澳元兑美元价格预测

04/24 WEDNESDAY | 14:00 GMT | CAD BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION

04/24星期三|格林尼治标准时间14:00 |加拿大加拿大央行加息决定

Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 7% chance of a 25-bps rate cut through July 2019. Through September 2019, odds of a rate cut only increase to 18.9%.As such, we‘re expecting the BOC to signal that it’s firmly in a neutral policy stance, with the continued implicit understanding that oil prices will help guide the next rate move.

隔夜指数掉期定价为2019年7月降息25个基点的可能性为7％。到2019年9月，仅降息的可能性为因此，我们预计中国银行将发出坚定的中立政策立场，并持续暗示油价将有助于引导下一次加息。

Read the full report: April Bank of Canada Meeting & USDCAD Price Forecast

} 阅读完整报告：4月加拿大银行会议和美元加州价格预测

04/25 THURSDAY | ~01:00 GMT | JPY BANK OF JAPAN RATE DECISION

04/25周四| ~01：00 GMT |日元汇率决定日元银行

The Bank of Japan remains mired in its three-decade war of attrition with deflationary pressures, and 2019 has yet to prove successful in getting topline inflation readings back towards the BOJ‘s medium-term target of +2%.The March National Japanese CPI report came in at a paltry0.5%, the core inflation reading (ex-fresh food) came in at 0.8%, and the core-core inflation reading (ex-fresh food and ex-energy) came in at 0.4% (y/y). It’s fairly predictable that the BOJ will remain one of the worlds most dovish central banks for the foreseeable future.

日本央行仍然陷入三十年的通货紧缩压力之中，而且通货紧缩的压力仍然存在日本央行的中期目标指数回升至日本央行的中期目标+ 2％。日本3月全国CPI报告微不足道的0.5％，核心通胀数据（前新鲜食品）为0.8％，核心通胀数据（前新鲜食品和前能源）为0.4％（同比）。可以预见的是，在可预见的未来，日本央行仍将是世界上最温和的中央银行之一。

Read the full report: April Bank of Japan Meeting & EURJPY Price Forecast

阅读完整报告：4月日本银行会议和欧元兑日元价格预测

04/25 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MAR P)

04/25周四| 12:30 GMT |美元耐用品订单（MAR P）

The US economy revolves around consumption trends, given that approximately 70% of GDP is accounted for by the spending habits of businesses and consumers. As such, the Durable Goods Orders reportmake for an important barometer of the US economy. The preliminary March print is expected to show a gain of 0.6% after the 1.6% drop in February.

美国经济围绕消费趋势展开，因为大约70％的GDP来自企业和消费者的消费习惯。因此，“耐用品订单”报告标志着美国经济的重要晴雨表。在2月份下降1.6％之后，预计3月初步印刷品将增长0.6％。

Read the full report: March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast

阅读完整报告：美国3月耐用品订单和美元兑日元价格预测

04/26 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (1Q A)

04/26周五| 12:30 GMT |美元国内生产总值（1Q A）

The Bloomberg News survey is calling for US GDP to come in at 2.2% annualized. Depending upon where you look, estimates vary. The New York Nowcast estimate for Q119 US GDP is only at 1.4%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing at 2.8% growth. Regardless, it does appear that any near-term concerns about the US economy dippinginto a recession were overblown.

彭博新闻调查显示美国GDP年化率为2.2％。根据您的目的，估计值会有所不同。纽约Nowcast对Q119美国GDP的估计仅为1.4％，而亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型的增长率为2.8％。无论如何，似乎对美国经济陷入衰退的近期担忧都被夸大了。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写