Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Stalls- Loonie Levels

• USD/CAD breakout stalls at confluence resistance near six-month highs at 1.3537

  美元/加元突破在汇价阻力位于六个月高位1.3537附近停滞

• Check out our 2019 projections in our Free DailyFX USD Trading Forecasts

  在我们的免费DailyFX美元交易预测中查看我们的2019年预测

• Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

  加入Michael for Live Weekly星期一中午12点30分的战略网络研讨会

The Canadian Dollar is down more than 0.55% against the US Dollar with a breach of the monthly opening-range taking USD/CAD to levels not seen since January. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts heading into the close of the week/month. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

加元兑美元下跌超过0.55％违反每月开盘价，将美元/加元升至1月份以来的最低水平。这些是更新的目标和无效级别，这些级别在美元/加元图表上对于周/月结束时至关重要。查看我最新的策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

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Technical Outlook: In last weeks USD/CAD analyst pick we noted to, “Look for support ahead of the 1.3435/37 confluence zone IF price is heading higher on this stretch with near-term topside objectives at the May high at 1.3514 and 1.3537- a breach / close there would be needed to validate a breakout of the monthly range.” Price briefly registered a low at 1.3430 early in the week before rallying sharply with the advance failing at the 1.3537 confluence resistance zone yesterday (high registered at 1.3546) – note that daily momentum halted precisely at the 60-threshold and highlights the risk to the near-term breakout.

技术展望：上周美元/加元分析师选择我们注意到在1.3435 / 37汇合区之前寻找支撑位IF如果价格在这段时间走高，近期上行目标位于5月高点1.3514和1.3537-需要突破/收盘才能确认突破价格在本周早些时候短暂反弹至1.3430，然后在昨天1.3537汇合阻力位上突破1月高点（高点位于1.3546），并注意到每日动能恰好停在60-门槛和突出了近期突破的风险。

USD/CAD 120min Price Chart

美元/加元120分钟价格表

Notes: A closer look at price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of a near-term ascending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly lows. Note that price found resistance at the 75% line for the second time on this last stretch with the pullback now probing back below the median-line.

注意：仔细看看大米行动显示美元/加元在近期上涨干草叉形成的范围内交易，延伸至月度低点。需要注意的是，价格在最后一段时间内第二次在75％线上发现阻力，现在回调位于中线以下。

Initial support rests with the 5/22 trendline backed closely by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3474- weakness beyond this threshold would risk a larger setback towards the lower 25% line and the 1.3435/37 support pivot- look for a bigger reaction there if reached. Resistance steady at 1.3537 with a breach above the upper parallel / monthly high at ~1.3546 needed to validate the breakout targeting 1.3574 & 1.3599.

初步支撑位于5 / 22趋势线紧随1.3474的38.2％回撤位置 - 超过此阈值的弱势将导致更大的挫折向下25％线和1.3435 / 37支撑位 - 如果达到更大的反应则寻求更大的反应。阻力稳定在1.3537，突破上方并行/月度高点~1.3546，需要确认突破目标1.3574和1.3599。

Bottom line: USD/CAD has broken above the monthly opening-range highs and IF this breakout is legit, losses should be limited to the lower parallel (currently ~1.3450s) for now. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce short-exposure – be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion down here. Ultimately, a breach / close above the median-line is needed to keep the long-bias viable. Keep in mind Canada GDP data is slated for Friday morning. Review my latest USD/CAD Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term look at the technical picture on the Loonie.

一句话：美元兑加元突破了月度开盘价的高点，如果这个突破是合法的，损失应限于较低的水平（目前为〜1.3450）目前。从交易的角度来看，这是一个减少短期风险的好地方 - 请注意可能的近期疲惫。最终，需要在中线以上进行突破/收盘以保持长期偏差。请记住，加拿大GDP数据定于周五上午。查看我最新的美元/加元每周价格展望，以便长期了解Loonie的技术图片。

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

美元/加元交易者情绪

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -2.51 (28.5% of traders are long) – bullishreading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示交易者是净空头美元/加元 - 比率为-2.51（交易者持有多头的28.5％） - 看涨

• Traders have remained net-short since May 22nd; price has moved 0.2% higher since then

  交易商自5月22日以来一直保持净空头;价格已经上涨0.2％然后

• Long positions are19.1% higher than yesterday and 10.2% lower from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加19.1％，比上周减少10.2％

• Short positions are5.8% higher than yesterday and 60.8% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天增加5.8％，比上周增加60.8％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆势观点为了挤压市场情绪，而且交易商是净空头的，这表明美元/加元的价格可能继续上涨。交易商的净空头比昨天减少，但上周的净空头较多，目前定位和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度看出美元/加元交易偏差进一步加剧。

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Relevant US / Canada Economic Data Releases

相关的美国/加拿大经济数据发布

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

经济日历 - 最新的经济发展和即将发生的事件风险。

Active Trade Setups

有效交易设置

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

- 由DailyFX货币策略师Michael Boutros撰写