Top 5 Events: June RBA Rate Decision & AUDUSD Price Forecast

RBA Rate Decision Talking Points:

澳大利亚央行利率决定谈话要点：

• The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, June 3 at 04:30 GMT; rates markets are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25-bps rate cut.

  澳大利亚储备银行于6月2日举行会议格林威治标准时间04:30利率市场定价降息25个基点的可能性为38％。

• Price action in AUDUSD has been choppy of recent, and now the downturn in place since mid-April may be coming to an end.

  澳元兑美元的价格走势近期波动，现在自4月中旬以来的低迷可能即将结束。

• Retail tradershave remained net-long since April 18 when AUDUSD traded near 0.71738; AUDUSD price has moved 2.2% lower since then.

  自4月18日澳元兑美元汇率接近0.71738后，零售交易商仍然持续净多头;自那时以来，澳元兑美元的价格已下跌2.2％。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部夏令时间7:30加入我： 30 GMT为FX Week提供网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

06/04 TUESDAY | 04:30 GMT | AUD RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA RATE DECISION

06/04 TUESDAY | 04:30 GMT |澳大利亚储备银行澳大利亚汇率决定

Since the last Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on May 7, economic data trends have proved disappointing. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for Australia, a gauge of economic data momentum, fell from 43.9 on May 7 to 26.9 on May 31. While there was neither a GDP nor an inflation report released, the data that did come out proved middling at best. March Australia retail sales grew by 0.3% after adding 0.9% in February (m/m), while the April Australia jobs report showed a strong topline figure that was undercut by a surprise rise in the unemployment rate.

自5月7日上一次澳大利亚储备银行利率决定以来，经济数据趋势令人失望。衡量经济数据动力的澳大利亚花旗经济意外指数从5月7日的43.9降至5月31日的26.9。虽然没有发布国内生产总值或通胀报告，但确实出现的数据充其量只是中等水平。 3月份澳大利亚零售额在2月份增长0.9％（月比）后增长0.3％，而澳大利亚4月份的就业报告显示强劲的一线数据因失业率意外上升而受到削弱。

In the interim period since the last RBA meeting in May, rates markets have continued to pull forward expectations of a 25-bps rate cut into the first half of 2019. After the May RBA meeting, there was a 59% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in June; currently, those odds sit at 93%.

自5月份上次RBA会议以来的中期期间，利率市场继续推动预期2019年上半年降息25个基点。在5月份的澳大利亚央行会议之后，6月份降息25个基点的可能性为59％;目前，这些可能性为93％。

Given that market pricing is very tight as is –there is a 70% chance of a second 25-bps rate cut by September (overall, a 79% chance of two cuts in 2019) – it will take a lot for the RBA to not disappoint steep dovish expectations. When a policy decision is priced-in this far in advance, it shouldn‘t be a surprise if the corresponding currency (in this case, the Australian Dollar) doesn’t respond with a significant price reaction.

鉴于市场定价非常紧张 - 有70％的可能性9月份降息25个基点（总体而言，有79％的可能性）在2019年两次削减） - 澳大利亚央行将不会失望陡峭的鸽派预期。如果政策决定在此前提前定价，那么如果相应的货币（在这种情况下，澳大利亚元）没有以显着的价格反应作出回应，那就不足为奇了。

Pairs to Watch: AUDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDUSD

需要关注的对象：澳元兑日元，澳元兑美元，澳元兑美元

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Timeframe (June 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 1)

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A technical analysis overview of AUDUSD prices showcases a currency pair that may be attempting to bottom. Price is currently enmeshed in the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope; AUDUSD has closed below the daily 21-EMA since April 22. But with the daily 21-EMA being tested for the first time in five-weeks, there is tangible technical evidence that a turn may be in the midst of its early stages (helped by broad US Dollar weakness).

澳元兑美元价格的技术分析概述展示了可能试图触底的货币对。价格目前陷入每日8,13和21-EMA信封;自4月22日以来，澳元兑美元已收于每日21-EMA以下。但由于每日21-EMA在五周内首次接受测试，因此有切实的技术证据表明转向可能处于早期阶段（帮助）美元走势疲软）。

A move back above the daily 21-EMA at 0.6944 would increase the likelihood of a return back to the former 2019 closing low established in January at 0.6982. Otherwise, if AUDUSD were to fall below 0.6899 (the low during the last week of May), then traders may want to rethink the perspective that prices are bottoming out.

回到每日21-EMA位于0.6944之上将增加回到1月份创下的前2019年收盘低点0.6982的可能性。 。否则，如果澳元兑美元跌破0.6899（5月最后一周的低点），那么交易者可能想重新考虑价格触底反弹的观点。

IG Client Sentiment Index: AUDUSD Price Forecast (May 31, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：澳元兑美元价格预测（2019年5月31日）（图2）

AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 77.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.49 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 18 when AUDUSD traded near 0.71738; price has moved 2.2% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Apr 25 when AUDUSD traded near 0.70185. The number of traders net-long is 9.5% higher than yesterday and 7.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.8% lower than yesterday and 4.8% lower from last week.

AUDUSD：零售交易者数据显示，77.7％的交易者是交易商长期与空头的比率为3.49比1.事实上，自4月18日澳元兑美元交易于0.71738附近以来，交易商仍维持净多头;此后价格已下跌2.2％。交易商净多头的百分比现在是自4月25日以来的最高点澳元兑美元汇率在0.70185附近交易。交易商净多头比昨天增加9.5％，比上周增加7.7％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少16.8％，比上周减少4.8％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易商净多头表明澳元兑美元的价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前市场情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对澳元兑美元看跌的逆势交易偏见更加强烈。