Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecast: GBPUSD Price Rallies to a 2-Week High

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points

英镑（GBP）谈话要点

• Sterling neutral against most other G7 currencies.

  对大多数其他G7货币持中性英镑。

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• GBPUSD pops higher as US dollar weakens further.

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Q2 2019 GBP Forecast and Top Trading Opportunity

2019年第二季度英镑预测和最佳交易机会

Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Neutral

英镑的基本面预测：中性

The outlook for Sterling remains neutral, and from a fundamental perspective is likely to stay that way, with Brexit negotiations currently on the back-burner as UK domestic politics take over. UK PM Theresa May stood down today but remains temporary PM until a new Conservative leader is chosen, with Brexiteer Boris Johnson still the firm favorite for the role he has coveted for so long.

英镑的前景保持中立，从基本面来看，英国国内政治接管后，英国脱欧谈判目前处于落后状态。英国首席执行官特蕾莎·梅今天辞职，但在选择新的保守党领袖之前仍然是临时总理，而布雷克斯特·鲍里斯·约翰逊仍然是他长期以来垂涎这个角色的最爱。

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Candidates for the leadership position will enter the fray on Monday (June 10) and the process of whittling down the list will continue until June 22 when just two candidates are left. Conservative party members are then expected to have one month (July 22) to decide on their preferred candidate with the new leader likely to be announced on July 23. The UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU on October 31.

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Sterling is likely to remain rangebound during this process although pockets of volatility will occur as MPs decide who to back. The Pound will be susceptible to data releases on Monday and Tuesday next week, including the latest monthly growth projections, industrial and manufacturing data and the latest look at the jobs and wages figures on Tuesday.

在这个过程中，英镑很可能会保持区间波动，但是当国会议员决定谁回击时，会出现一些波动。英镑将在下周一和周二的数据发布中受到影响，包括最新的月度增长预测，工业和制造业数据以及周二就业和工资数据的最新数据。

The DailyFX Economic Calendar covers all market moving data releases and events.

DailyFX经济日历涵盖所有市场移动数据发布和事件。

The Sterling basket continues it recent drift lower, although on the longer-dated chart above GBP has been making a series of higher lows since early 2016. GBPUSD however is ending the week on the front-foot, and at its best level in around two-weeks as the US dollar drops further. This USD weakness is likely to become entrenched further, especially after todays (Friday) weaker-than-expected US Labour and wages data, while at least two 0.25% US interest rate cuts are expected in 2019.

英镑兑美元继续近期走低，尽管在英镑以上的长期图表中，自2016年初以来一直处于一系列较高的低点。英镑兑美元然而，由于美元进一步下跌，本周结束了本周的前脚，并处于两周左右的最佳水平。美元疲软可能会进一步加剧，特别是在今天（周五）弱于预期的美国之后工党和工资数据，但预计2019年美国至少会降息0.25％。

GBPUSD currently trades around 1.2740 and any further move higher will be driven by the US dollar. A break back above 1.2800 may prove difficult in the short-term and we could well see a narrow, sideways, trading range developing over the coming weeks.

英镑兑美元目前在1.2740附近交易，任何进一步走高都将受美元推动如果在短期内突破1.2800可能会很困难，我们很可能会看到未来几周出现窄幅横向交易区间。

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 77.4% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that GBPUSD may soon reverse higher.

IG客户情绪数据油漆该货币对的负面情况为77.4％的交易者持有英镑兑美元，这是一个看跌的逆势偏见信号。然而，最近的每日和每周位置变化表明英镑兑美元可能很快反转走高。

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – June 7, 2019)

英镑兑美元每日价格走势图（2018年8月 - 2019年6月7日）