US Dollar Saved by Rising Support, GBP Plummets on Dismal UK Data

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

亚太市场公开谈话要点

• US Dollar finds support as risk aversion and Fed rate cut bets cool

  美元因风险规避和美联储利率而获得支持减少投注

• The British Pound sunk after a dismal round of economic statistics

  英镑在经济萧条之后陷入沉没

• APAC stocks may struggle rising, S&P 500 upside momentum fades

  亚太地区股市可能难以上涨，标准普尔500指数上行势头消退

US Dollar Downtrend Pauses With US-Mexico Trade Tension Relief

美元下行趋势暂停美墨贸易紧张局势

The US and Canadian Dollars had a solid first day of the week as US-Mexico trade tensions cooled, as anticipated. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced that the nation will “indefinitely suspend” tariffs on Mexico, sending ripple effects in global benchmark stock indexes as sentiment generally recovered. Haven demand ebbed as US front-end government bond yields climbed.

美元和加元有美国 - 墨西哥贸易紧张局势正如预期的那样，本周第一天表现稳固。上周末，唐纳德特朗普总统宣布，该国将“无限期暂停”对墨西哥的关税，在全球基准股票指数中产生连锁反应，因为情绪普遍恢复。随着美国前端政府债券收益率的攀升，避险需求开始减少。

Gains in the relatively high-yielding US Dollar, which has been battered by rising probabilities of a July Fed rate cut, helped it to outperform against the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Fed funds futures are now pricing in about a 78% chance of a cut from the US, down from 83% by the end of last Friday. While the S&P 500 gapped up and rose, it ended the day back near open (+0.47%) after some losses.

收益相对较高的美元收益率已经上涨受到美联储7月降息的可能性上升的打击，它帮助其超越了有利于风险的澳元和新西兰元。联邦基金期货现在定价美国减产的可能性约为78％，低于上周五末的83％。虽然标准普尔500指数跳空并上涨，但在收盘后一天收盘接近开盘（+ 0.47％）。

Meanwhile, the British Pound fell, particularly earlier in the day following a set of dismal economic data. UK manufacturing production contracted 3.9% m/m in April which was the most in about 17 years. Meanwhile, GDP also slumped 0.4% m/m during the same period which is a second month of contraction and its worst in over three years. More of the same could pressure Sterling, given the overhang of Brexit

同时，英镑下跌，特别是在当天早些时候遵循一系列令人沮丧的经济数据。 4月英国制造业产量环比下降3.9％，是17年来最大的。与此同时，同期GDP同比下跌0.4％，这是第二个月的萎缩，也是三年来最严重的一次。考虑到英国脱欧的过剩，更多同样可能给英镑带来压力

US Dollar Technical Analysis

美元技术分析

The pause in the near-term downtrend seen in DXY leaves the rising trend line from September 2018 intact. Now, it faces the former range of support-turned-resistance between 96.75 and 96.86. If overcome, this may lead to gains in the Greenback in the medium-term. I believe that this could be the case whether we see Fed rate cut bets pushed further out or rising fears of a US recession.

近期暂停DXY出现下行趋势，从2018年9月开始上升趋势线克拉。现在，它面临96.75和96.86之间的前支撑位阻力区间。如果克服，这可能会导致中期美元上涨。我相信，如果我们看到美联储降息的进一步推动或美国经济衰退的担忧加剧，情况可能会如此。

DXY Daily Chart

DXY每日图表

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Chart Created in TradingView

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Asia Pacific Tuesday Session

亚太地区周二会议

The fading upside momentum in US equities towards the end of Monday speaks to S&P 500 futures, which are now little changed with a slight downside bias. As such, regional trading bourses may struggle to find upside follow-through from Wall Streets Monday session. Keep a close eye on shares in Australia where BHP Group stock prices are hinting of a reversal potentially coming in the ASX 200.

美国股市在周一结束时的上行势头逐渐消退，标志着标准普尔500指数期货现在几乎没有变化，略有下行偏见。因此，区域交易交易所可能很难在华尔街星期一会议上找到上行通道。密切关注澳大利亚的股票，必和必拓集团的股票价格暗示ASX 200可能出现逆转。