FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Q219 Eurozone GDP & EUR/JPY Rate Forecast

Q219 Eurozone GDP Overview:

Q2'19欧元区GDP概述：

• The Q219 Eurozone GDP report is due out on Wednesday, August 14 at 09:00 GMT, and the data should only serve to further confirm the ECBs desire to provide more stimulus in September.

  第二季度欧元区GDP报告即将到期8月14日星期三格林威治标准时间09:00，该数据仅用于进一步证实欧洲央行9月份希望提供更多刺激措施。

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• Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 10-bps rate cut at the September ECB meeting, while there is an 82% chance of 20-bps of rate cuts by the end of 2019.

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• Retail traders have remained net-long since April 25 when EURJPY traded near 125.20; price has moved 5.5% lower since then.

  零售交易商自4月25日欧元兑日元交易于125.20附近以来一直保持净多头;价格自那时以来已下跌5.5％。

08/14 WEDNESDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR EUROZONE GDP (2Q P)

08/14 WEDNESDAY | 09:00 GMT |欧元区国内生产总值（第二季度）

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According to a Bloomberg News survey, the first revision to the Q2‘19 Eurozone GDP report is due but no change is expected. The quarterly rate is due in on hold at 0.2% while the yearly rate is set to hold at 1.1%. Consistently weak growth figures should serve to reinforce the European Central Bank’s Governing Councils view that risks have moved “to the downside,” and to this end, that more easing will arrive in September when the ECB releases the next iteration of its Staff Economic Projections. Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 10-bps rate cut at the September ECB meeting, while there is an 82% chance of 20-bps of rate cuts by the end of 2019.

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Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD

值得关注：EURGBP，EURJPY，EURUSD

EURJPY Technical Analysis: Weekly Timeframe (April 2018 to August 2019) (Chart 1)

EURJPY技术分析：每周时间表（2018年4月至2019年8月）（图1）

The EURJPY selloff that has transpired over recent weeks has represented a significant downside break of a multiyear symmetrical triangle dating back to 2008. Now that the weekly timeframe suggests a loss of triangle support and recent swing support at the January 2019 Japanese Yen flash-crash low at 118.82, we may be witnessing the early phases of what could be a long-term downtrend. Indeed, it appears that the bearish policy concerns that undergirded the Top Trade Idea 2019: Short EURJPY are coming to fruition (the trade has already achieved its yearly price target).

最近几周发生的欧元兑日元抛售代表了一个可追溯到2008年的多年对称三角形的显着下行突破。现在，每周时间框架显示三角形支撑位下跌以及近期的2019年1月日元日内大跌至118.82的下跌支撑，我们可能正在目睹早期阶段这可能是一个长期的下行趋势。事实上，似乎看跌政策关注的是2019年顶级贸易理念的支撑：欧元兑日元的短暂结果（交易已经达到了年度目标价格）。

EURJPY Technical Analysis: Daily Timeframe (April 2018 to August 2019) (Chart 2)

EURJPY技术分析：每日时间表（2018年4月至2019年8月）（图2）

With the weekly timeframe clearly exhibiting overt bearish momentum, the recent break low looks more ominous on the daily timeframe. EURJPY closed last week below the January 2019 Japanese Yen flash-crash low of 118.82 by posting a close at 118.36, in effect serving as a measure of confirmation that the predominant trend will be lower for the foreseeable future.

随着每周时间框架明显呈现明显看跌势头，近期在每日时间框架内，突破低点看起来更加不祥。欧元兑日元上周收盘于2019年1月日元汇率低点118.82下方，收盘报118.36，实际上是对可预见的未来主导趋势将会走低的确认。

As long as EURJPY prices are below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope while both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics trend lower in bearish territory and below their neutral line, respectively, the path of least resistance will remain to the downside. Near-term price targets may come at the late-February 2017 swing low near 118.24 and the 76.4% retracement of the 2016 low to 2018 high range at 115.88.

只要欧元兑日元价格低于每日8,13和21-EMA信封，而日线MACD和慢速随机指标分别在看跌区域和低于中性线下方走低，则走势最小抵抗将继续下行。近期价格目标可能会在2017年2月下旬的低点118.24附近以及2016年低点至2018年高点的76.4％回撤位115.88。

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURJPY Rate Forecast (August 9, 2019) (Chart 3)

IG客户情绪指数：EURJPY利率预测（2019年8月9日）（图3）

EURJPY: Retail trader data shows 63.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.75 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 25 when EURJPY traded near 125.20; price has moved 5.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.2% lower than yesterday and 4.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.0% lower than yesterday and 33.3% higher from last week.

EURJPY：零售交易者数据显示63.6％的交易者净广告交易者的长期与空头比率为1.75比1.事实上，交易者仍然存在自4月25日欧元兑日元交易于125.20附近以来的净多头;此后价格已下跌5.5％。交易商净多头比昨天减少7.2％，比上周减少4.3％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少3.0％，比上周增加33.3％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURJPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURJPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

我们通常采取反向观点来看待市场情绪，而且交易商净多头表明欧元兑日元价格可能继续下跌。然而，与上周相比，交易商净持续时间较短。近期情绪变化警告称，尽管交易商保持净多头，但目前的欧元兑日元价格走势可能很快反转走高。