Dollar rebounds on higher expectations for Fed hike in May

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar bounced from a one-year low on Monday as resilience in core U.S. retail sales, a rise in short-term inflation expectations and impressive Wall Street bank earnings raised market expectations for an interest rate hike in May.

新加坡（路透社）——美元周一从一年低点反弹，原因是美国核心零售销售的韧性、短期通胀预期的上升以及华尔街银行令人印象深刻的财报提高了市场对 5 月加息的预期。

While U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March, so-called core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, slipped just 0.3% last month, data released on Friday showed.

周五公布的数据显示，虽然美国 3 月份零售额降幅超过预期，但不包括汽车、汽油、建筑材料和食品服务在内的所谓核心零售额上月仅下滑 0.3%。

Adding to the mix of resilient U.S. economic data was a strong run of first-quarter 2023 earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc and Wells Fargo & Co, brushing off concerns about a banking crisis that unfolded in March.

摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行公布的 2023 年第一季度财报表现强劲，消除了人们对 3 月份发生的银行业危机的担忧，这让美国经济数据表现强劲。

Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% to 101.82, standing some distance away from Fridays one-year low of 100.78.

美元指数兑一篮子货币上涨 0.15% 至 101.82，距离周五的一年低点 100.78 有一段距离。

Friday marked the fifth straight weekly loss for the index.

周五标志着该指数连续第五周下跌。

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0965, while sterling slipped 0.22% to $1.2387.

欧元下跌 0.2% 至 1.0965 美元，而英镑下跌 0.22% 至 1.2387 美元。

“The U.S. bank earnings came out much better than expectations, which suggests that the U.S. economy is not so bad … So I think that will increase (expectations) for the Fed to continue raising interest rates,” said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets.

“美国银行业财报好于预期，这表明美国经济并没有那么糟糕......所以我认为这将增加美联储继续加息的（预期），”cmc 市场分析师 tina teng 表示市场。

Money markets are now pricing in a roughly 81% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next month, up from about a 69% chance last week.

货币市场目前预计美联储下个月加息 25 个基点的可能性约为 81%，高于上周的约 69%。

Short-term inflation expectations have also increased, with the University of Michigans preliminary April reading showing that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 3.6% in March.

短期通胀预期也有所上升，密歇根大学 4 月份的初值显示，一年期通胀预期从 3 月份的 3.6% 升至 4.6%。

Yields on U.S. Treasuries jumped in the wake of the data releases on Friday, and remained elevated on Monday.

周五数据公布后，美国国债收益率飙升，周一仍处于高位。

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, stood at 4.1137%, after hitting a roughly two-week top of 4.137% on Friday.

通常与利率预期同步的两年期美国国债收益率为 4.1137%，上周五触及大约两周高点 4.137%。

The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 3.5261%.

基准 10 年期国债收益率最新报 3.5261%。

Some hawkish Fed speak also aided the higher interest rate expectations, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting that the Fed could hike another 25 bps next month.

美联储的一些鹰派言论也有助于提高利率预期，美联储理事克里斯托弗沃勒和亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔博斯蒂克暗示美联储可能在下个月加息 25 个基点。

In other currencies, the dollar rose 0.16% against the Japanese yen to 133.96, as the Bank of Japan remains a dovish outlier as it continues to keep interest rates ultra-low.

在其他货币方面，美元兑日元汇率上涨 0.16% 至 133.96，因为日本央行继续保持超低利率，因此仍然是一个鸽派的异常值。

The Aussie slipped 0.19% to $0.6696, while the kiwi fell 0.39% to $0.6186.

澳元下跌 0.19% 至 0.6696 美元，而新西兰元下跌 0.39% 至 0.6186 美元。

Over in Asia, a raft of economic data from China out this week takes centre stage, as traders look for clues on how the recovery in the worlds second-largest economy is playing out.

在亚洲，本周公布的大量中国经济数据成为焦点，交易员正在寻找有关世界第二大经济体复苏如何发挥作用的线索。

“We expect March activity data to show moderate growth momentum acceleration, but (are) unlikely to see large positive surprises,” analysts at MUFG said.

“我们预计 3 月份的活动数据将显示温和的增长势头加速，但（不太可能）出现大的积极意外，”三菱日联金融集团的分析师表示。

Last week, China reported an unexpected surge in its exports in March, which shot up 14.8% from a year earlier, snapping five straight months of declines.

上周，中国公布 3 月份出口意外激增，同比增长 14.8%，结束了连续五个月的下滑。

The offshore yuan fell more than 0.1% to 6.8807 per dollar.

离岸人民币兑美元下跌超过 0.1% 至 6.8807。

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

（rae wee 报道；jacqueline wong 编辑）