Crude Oil Price Crumbles on Trump Call to OPEC Despite US GDP Beat

CRUDE OIL PRICE – TALKING POINTS:

原油价格 - 谈话要点：

• Crude oil took a nosedive to an intraday low of $62.27/bbl in response to news that President Trump is turning up the heat on OPEC to increase oil supply in hopes of driving prices lower

  原油暴跌至盘中低点特朗普总统为石油输出国组织增加石油供应以推动价格走低的消息回应62.27美元/桶，

• The Q1 US GDP report could also be contributing to crude oil price action today seeing that underlying details of the data release painted a mixed picture for economic growth despite the headline number beating expectations by a full percentage point

  Q1美国国内生产总值报告也可能导致原油价格走势今天看到数据发布的基本细节为经济增长绘制了复杂的图景，尽管标题数量超出预期整整百分点

• Take a look at this article on How to Trade Crude Oil or check out these Top Crude Oil Facts to expand your trading knowledge

  看看这篇关于如何交易原油的文章或查看这些顶级原油事实以扩展您的交易知识

• Download the DailyFX Q2 Oil Forecast for our comprehensive outlook

  下载DailyFX Q2石油预测我们的综合展望

Crude oil tanked over 3 percent to its lowest level since April 5 amid renewed criticism from US President Trump over OPEC and global oil supply. Trump‘s latest jab at the largest group of oil producing countries is not is his first attempt to put pressure on the petroleum cartel to raise crude output. In fact, Trump’s oil tweet a month ago also sent prices swinging lower when he said it is “very important that OPEC increase the flow of oil.”

原油价格下跌3％以上美国总统特朗普对欧佩克和全球石油供应的批评再度受到4月5日以来的最低水平。特朗普对最大的石油生产国集团的最新举动并不是他第一次向石油卡特尔施加压力以提高原油产量。事实上，一个月前特朗普的石油推文也表示，当欧佩克增加石油流量“非常重要”时，价格会走低。

CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: 5-MINUTE TIME FRAME (APRIL 26, 2019 INTRADAY)

原油价格表：5 -MINUTE TIME FRAME（2019年4月26日，INTRADAY）

Prior to todays slide lower, markets witnessed a 55 percent surge in oil since the start of the year. The move higher was primarily driven by pledges from OPEC to cut oil production and restore supply and demand imbalances in response to slowing global growth.

在今天下跌之前，市场自今年年初以来油价飙升55％。欧元区石油输出国组织（OPEC）承诺削减石油产量，恢复供需失衡以应对全球经济增长放缓，推动此走高。

Turmoil in Libya and Venezuela as well as the expiration of exemptions to Iranian sanctions have all likely exacerbated the move higher in oil prices. Now, fears are starting to build that the steep ascent in oil prices over the last 4 months could begin to drag economic growth lower. This could be the result of higher oil prices translating into rising input costs on firms and eventually consumers.

利比亚和委内瑞拉的动荡以及到期对伊朗制裁的豁免可能加剧了油价走高的举动。现在，人们越来越担心过去4年油价飙升可能会开始拖累经济增长。这可能是油价上涨导致企业和最终消费者的投入成本上升的结果。

The dramatic move in oil today is a bit surprising on the surface, however, considering the massive US Q1 GDP beat. The US economy expanded 3.2 percent in the first quarter which blew past Bloombergs median consensus of 2.2 percent. Initially, one might expect the news of higher economic growth to boost the case for rebounding global GDP, leading to a similar rise in demand for oil and thus oil prices.

今天石油的戏剧性举动在表面上有点令人惊讶，但考虑到美国第一季度GDP大幅下滑。第一季度美国经济增长3.2％，超过Bloombergs中位数2.2％的市场预期。最初，人们可能会认为经济增长较高的消息可以推动全球GDP反弹的情况，导致石油需求和石油价格也出现类似上涨。

Although, when ‘looking under the hood’ of the US GDP report, the details appear to be bleaker than the 3.2 percent headline number reported. The better than expected US GDP number was largely driven by a hefty build in inventories, a reduction in imports in addition to higher state and local government outlays – components that generally do not warrant a celebration.

尽管如此，在美国国内生产总值报告的“引人注目”中，细节似乎比报道的3.2％的标题数字更为黯淡。好于预期的美国国内生产总值数字主要是由于库存量增加，进口减少以及州和地方政府支出增加 - 这些因素通常不值得庆祝。

This is also indicated by the lack of conviction in the equity markets and skepticism in the bond markets with the S&P500 only up a mere 0.3 percent after opening up in the red and the US10YR Treasury yield dropping to 2.5 percent.

股票市场缺乏信心以及债券市场持怀疑态度也表明了这一点，标准普尔500指数在红色开放和美国10年期美国国债收益率下降至2.5％之后只上涨了0.3％。

If markets remain unconvinced that economic fundamentals are turning higher – which appears to only be occurring in the United States while the rest of the world continues to struggle – resurfacing global growth slowdown fears could drag oil prices lower. Furthermore, the downside risk of another Trump tweet at OPEC always remains a possibility.

如果市场仍然不相信经济基本面正在走高 - 这似乎只发生在美国而世界其他地区继续挣扎 - 重新抬头的全球增长放缓的担忧可能拖累油价降低。此外，欧佩克的另一份特朗普推文的下行风险始终存在。