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Bank of Japan board members are divided on rate hikes due to high living costs and price risks. Some urge caution, while others push for early action. The BoJ will closely monitor data ahead of potential interest rate adjustments. USD/JPY rallied past 158.40 to 159.00, maintaining a bullish trend towards the next target of 160.20.
After considering various perspectives from Federal Reserve officials, the latest trends in US economic data, and global central banks' monetary policy trends, the conclusion can be drawn: the future direction of US inflation and interest rate policies is fraught with uncertainty. Market expectations suggest that against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, the Fed may cut interest rates this year. Simultaneously, heightened geopolitical tensions have increased demand for safe-haven assets, le
Due to another interest rate cut by the Swiss central bank, the market focused on interest rate differentials between different countries.
According to the U.S. Conference Board, consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved in May, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index rising to 102 from 97.5 in April. The U.S GDP grew by 1.3% in Q1 2024, a notable drop from the 3.4% growth rate in Q4 2023. This decline was primarily due to downward revisions in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. The UK's GDP for Q1 2024 showed a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase of 0.6%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4%.
the Japanese Yen has traded to its weakest level since April. The disappointing Japan National Core Inflation rate has further weakened the Yen
USD/JPY is near intervention levels with Japanese officials warning of potential forex actions. Despite a bullish trend, caution is advised due to possible government interference. The pair has risen past 158.25, aiming for 160.20, within a broader uptrend from 150.25. A break below 150.87 could signal a larger correction towards 146.47.
Market Review | June 21, 2024
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British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the first Prime Minister of Indian descent in history, is currently facing the awkward prospect of becoming the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat in a general election. According to analyses by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for The Daily Telegraph, the Conservative Party may only secure 53 seats in next month's election, marking its worst performance in history. YouGov's predictions suggest that the Labour Party could win 425 seats in the election
On Wednesday (June 19th), the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly and is still above the 105 level, ultimately closing down 0.11% at 105.15.
Attention now turns to the Pound Sterling as the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision is due later today.
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XAU/USD is forecasted to decline within a familiar range amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and December, influenced by weak U.S. retail sales and lower Treasury yields. Resistance is at $2,344-$2,345 (50-day SMA), with potential targets at $2,360-$2,400. Support levels include $2,300, $2,285, and possibly $2,254-$2,253 if downtrend persists. Traders await further Fed signals cautiously.
Market Review | June 20, 2024
This suggests that the key to the success of Japan's government bond management policy lies in creating an environment where the banking sector is confident in holding Japanese government bonds. Overall, the Japanese government is considering adjusting its bond issuance strategy to adapt to the new environment of reduced bond purchases by the central bank. They seek to mitigate market risks by issuing more short-term bonds while expanding the investor base for government bonds.
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The AUD/USD is expected to rise due to a softer US Dollar, improved risk sentiment, and the hawkish stance of the RBA, which kept rates at 4.35% and indicated potential near-term hikes. Technically, breaking above 0.6640 could push the pair to 0.6770, despite resistance from the 50, 100, and 200 SMAs on the 4-hour chart and challenges from China's sluggish economy. Key support is at 0.6521.
Market Review | June 19, 2024
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite Europe's efforts to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas, Russia's gas exports unexpectedly surpassed those of the United States in May, highlighting Europe's challenge in achieving energy independence. European natural gas prices surged 40% in three months due to increased demand in Asia and supply uncertainties. Despite high inventories, supply risks persist. The EU is seeking to diversify its sources and increase storage capacity to cope with mark
the Japanese yen saw modest gains as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) chief signalled a potential rate hike next month if economic data proves satisfactory.